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Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

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Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#171

Post by tacktal »

WarmWash wrote: post #111
stackskipton wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As Ed Zitron pointed out, that "quarter" of profitability is EBITDA profitability and comes with plenty of creative accounting. When they do it for a year, we can say "They have found profitability"

This[1][2] Ed Zitron, or another one? Because I don't know how you can be so totally and completely wrong for so many years, and still have people lend you credibility. But I definitely do understand how you can rage farm subscription dollars from suckers for years. [1] https://www.wheresyoured.at/bubble-trouble/ [2] https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/

Yea what do guys like Damodaran know about finance and valuation.

This board is only good to understand the consensus dipshit opinion.

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#172

Post by [deleted] »

treis wrote: post #39
phyalow wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent $18k in credits last month, I have 3x 20x Anthropic accounts (for Fable to bypass limits) which runs me another $600ish p/m and then a chatgpt pro account another $200 p/m. The value I got out of it is easily 1-200x what I paid.

You make ~2 million dollars a month?

[deleted]

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#173

Post by WhrRTheBaboons »

tristanj wrote: post #153
sandcat_ wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were so many comments[1][2][3] at the time saying that Uber has no moat, there’s no switching cost, the only value is the $3 rides, etc, etc. I suspect it’ll play out the same. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8987827 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6137542 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9984619

Agreed, ChatGPT has more than 900 million weekly active users. They're not losing the top spot anytime soon.

how many paying ones?

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#175

Post by carlosjobim »

jurgenburgen wrote: post #163
carlosjobim wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These companies have spent billions of investor dollars and they will need to recoup that cost soon. And then show year over year growth on top of that. Or else?

> Or else? Their investors will throw the CEO under the bus and hire a new one that will enshittify it enough to make them money.

Oh, I didn't know it was that easy to make trillions of dollars in profit. You say there fella that they just need to shittify themselves and all will work out splendid, you say? That sounds like magic.

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#176

Post by watwut »

inigyou wrote: post #122
watwut wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of those assets were useless - like railways from nowhere to nowhere. Only some ended up being used. And many innocent people ended up being hurt in the process. Bubbles are not good. They are harmful. The ability yo recoup some of the losses in the span of next 15 years does not make the bubbles something positive.

Even railways from nowhere to nowhere often ended up being useful when the ends were extended to somewhere or when somewhere grew to encompass nowhere. For example the Berlin Ringbahn was once some billionaire's toy but now it serves very useful traffic, as Berlin grew outwards to where the Ringbahn is.

It is not "often" it is "sometimes" and it is also less than a participation trophy. It does not make the bubble not harmful or even less harmful. It just means that sometimes you can repurpose an expensively build junk.

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#177

Post by enaaem »

WarmWash wrote: post #9

I don't know a single white collar worker who isn't using AI for their job. Not like forced, but like "Oh damn, this bot thing can do a lot of tedious leg work for me". To think that people won't pay $60-$80/mo to continue using it is wild to me. In a white collar environment it pays for itself in a few hours of use. If you focus on how much value AI brings to people (mostly in time saved), the bubble hardly looks bu…

The question isn't whether AI is worth it, but whether it becomes a commodity.

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#178

Post by porridgeraisin »

thisisit wrote: post #156
porridgeraisin wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Don't explain the how They processed 10 cases in a day rather than 7. In some cases, new work took its place and the company makes a little bit more money, but this is a lagging effect naturally. > Have their been reports of increased productivity or layoffs in tiny town, small non-tech companies in India that I am unaware of PWC et al don't go around doing reports on these tiny companies bro. The only information…

> PWC et al don't go around doing reports on these tiny companies bro. The only information you get is if you know people in that place and they tell you yourself, which is how I got to know. I knew the post screamed "trust me bro" vibes and now I know for sure. Government does Labor force surveys. Here's one for last year. Point me out how the participation is changing through AI paying for itself. https://www.pib.g…

> Government does Labor force surveys.

I am very aware of MOSPI. We collaborate in compiling the data for them! BTW there is an MCP server now: https://github.com/nso-india/esankhyiki-mcp.

What do you expect to glean out of PLFS though? Why would broad based labour force participation or other similar data change due to AI paying for itself? What?

If you meant to somehow glean some information out of the wages report, note that the wages survey was last done in 25. The quarterly and monthly bulletins don't contain wage data. Regardless, these are too macro to give any sense of any change at all happening in AI-accelerable knowledge work.

By "PWC report", I meant one where they went to firms and recorded using the same methodology some same notion of AI "paying for itself" or "increasing productivity".

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#179

Post by simplesocieties »

WarmWash wrote: post #9

I don't know a single white collar worker who isn't using AI for their job. Not like forced, but like "Oh damn, this bot thing can do a lot of tedious leg work for me". To think that people won't pay $60-$80/mo to continue using it is wild to me. In a white collar environment it pays for itself in a few hours of use. If you focus on how much value AI brings to people (mostly in time saved), the bubble hardly looks bu…

Why are there an endless flood of comments like this on HN and other social media insisting that because there’s such high demand, it’s IMPOSSIBLE that these tech companies are overvalued and over leveraging debt.

Reality is way more nuanced. Something can have high demand AND be on the precipice of financial catastrophe. See: Spirit Airlines.

Re: Why Wall Street is ignoring big tech's debt [video]

#180

Post by conartist6 »

WarmWash wrote: post #9

I don't know a single white collar worker who isn't using AI for their job. Not like forced, but like "Oh damn, this bot thing can do a lot of tedious leg work for me". To think that people won't pay $60-$80/mo to continue using it is wild to me. In a white collar environment it pays for itself in a few hours of use. If you focus on how much value AI brings to people (mostly in time saved), the bubble hardly looks bu…

It doesn't cost you $80 a month, it costs you your creativity first and then your reputation
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