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A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

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Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#11

Post by dlcarrier »

exabrial wrote: post #9

What actually happened [probably], in California: A heatpump salesman has a buddy that is a government official. Has outdated models he needs to liquidate. Salesman guy needs to be richer. Government official can't take the money directly, but sure would like to fly on salesman guys' private jet when they go golfing. Meanwhile government official guy goes and buys a bunch of Salesman company stock and profits explode…

I'm amazed by how difficult it is to get modern variable-speed heat pumps in California. You're lucky to get a two-speed unit, but they're only marginally better than single-speed. We're stuck with 80's technology because there's literally a list of what you're allowed to install. They claim it's to only allow energy efficient units, but the list is dominated by older inefficient models.

On top of that, you can't have just any contractor install it, they need to be certified to install heat pumps, and of course the ones who are certified will only install a heat pump they sell you.

If you want a modern energy efficient heat pump in California, without waiting forever and paying several times list price, you're going to have to install it illegally.

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#12

Post by dlcarrier »

magicalhippo wrote: post #2

I'm always amazed at how much these costs in the US. Wild prices even for a Norwegian. We have a two-story home half his size, but one minisplit upstairs and one downstairs would be $3-4000 installed, combined, and that's upper or top-end models. The ones I got would easily handle a house of his size.

It's one of the more protectionist industries in the US. At least it's not as bad as elevators, where imported ones have to be taken apart, so they can be reassembled by approved contractors.

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#13

Post by gwittel »

OldSchool wrote: post #5

Heat pumps are probably vastly under-installed in the southern part of the US because natural gas has been cheap and plentiful. If you live where natural gas isn't available your fuel option is propane. Propane tracks the price of gasoline, perhaps slightly lower in my experience. Here in Texas, electricity is only about $0.11/KWH so heat pumps work out like this: Heat Pump 5.0 COP : $6.50 per MMBtu Natural Gas : $12…

Modern heat pumps easily keep efficiency below freezing. Ours goes to 22F before there’s any efficiency drop. A different model goes below 0F (we just didn’t need it).

But yes, many makers push the crappier old tech models that bail around 50F.

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#14

Post by OldSchool »

SergeyKa wrote: post #10
OldSchool wrote: post #5

Heat pumps are probably vastly under-installed in the southern part of the US because natural gas has been cheap and plentiful. If you live where natural gas isn't available your fuel option is propane. Propane tracks the price of gasoline, perhaps slightly lower in my experience. Here in Texas, electricity is only about $0.11/KWH so heat pumps work out like this: Heat Pump 5.0 COP : $6.50 per MMBtu Natural Gas : $12…

California PG&E charges an average of $0.45/kWh. They know EVs are going to increase demand. They killed NEM1 and NEM2 to prevent folks from installing solar, and those with solar have to pay a monthly fee for the privilege of being connected. Heat pump my a$$.

Yep, electricity cost kills its viability in California.

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#15

Post by OldSchool »

gwittel wrote: post #13
OldSchool wrote: post #5

Heat pumps are probably vastly under-installed in the southern part of the US because natural gas has been cheap and plentiful. If you live where natural gas isn't available your fuel option is propane. Propane tracks the price of gasoline, perhaps slightly lower in my experience. Here in Texas, electricity is only about $0.11/KWH so heat pumps work out like this: Heat Pump 5.0 COP : $6.50 per MMBtu Natural Gas : $12…

Modern heat pumps easily keep efficiency below freezing. Ours goes to 22F before there’s any efficiency drop. A different model goes below 0F (we just didn’t need it). But yes, many makers push the crappier old tech models that bail around 50F.

Mine are from 2011, R410a and on the rare occasion that it gets to 22F here in Austin, they are painfully ineffective!

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#16

Post by gruez »

exabrial wrote: post #9

What actually happened [probably], in California: A heatpump salesman has a buddy that is a government official. Has outdated models he needs to liquidate. Salesman guy needs to be richer. Government official can't take the money directly, but sure would like to fly on salesman guys' private jet when they go golfing. Meanwhile government official guy goes and buys a bunch of Salesman company stock and profits explode…

>Heatpumps should absolutely be the primary choice in the correct climates. But these deals are rarely good or efficient for a taxpayer.

I'm amazed at the cynicism here. [thing] is objectively good, but it's still bad because government is involved and therefore corruption should be assumed? Even if we assume the government is corrupt by default, surely corruption that uses better technology is better than continuing to use the old technology? Otherwise we'd be continuing to burn coal because we wouldn't want the corrupt gas/solar companies to make money.

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#17

Post by gruez »

gwittel wrote: post #13
OldSchool wrote: post #5

Heat pumps are probably vastly under-installed in the southern part of the US because natural gas has been cheap and plentiful. If you live where natural gas isn't available your fuel option is propane. Propane tracks the price of gasoline, perhaps slightly lower in my experience. Here in Texas, electricity is only about $0.11/KWH so heat pumps work out like this: Heat Pump 5.0 COP : $6.50 per MMBtu Natural Gas : $12…

Modern heat pumps easily keep efficiency below freezing. Ours goes to 22F before there’s any efficiency drop. A different model goes below 0F (we just didn’t need it). But yes, many makers push the crappier old tech models that bail around 50F.

>Modern heat pumps easily keep efficiency below freezing. Ours goes to 22F before there’s any efficiency drop. A different model goes below 0F (we just didn’t need it).

No they don't. Their efficiency is linearly correlated with the ambient temperature. They don't "keep efficiency" nor is there a concept of "efficiency drop". It's just a straight line down.

https://docs.energytransitionmodel.com/main/heat-pumps/

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#18

Post by budsniffer952 »

gruez wrote: post #16
exabrial wrote: post #9

What actually happened [probably], in California: A heatpump salesman has a buddy that is a government official. Has outdated models he needs to liquidate. Salesman guy needs to be richer. Government official can't take the money directly, but sure would like to fly on salesman guys' private jet when they go golfing. Meanwhile government official guy goes and buys a bunch of Salesman company stock and profits explode…

>Heatpumps should absolutely be the primary choice in the correct climates. But these deals are rarely good or efficient for a taxpayer. I'm amazed at the cynicism here. [thing] is objectively good, but it's still bad because government is involved and therefore corruption should be assumed? Even if we assume the government is corrupt by default, surely corruption that uses better technology is better than continuing…

The right thinks everyone in government is inherently evil, and the left thinks everyone in management or above is inherently evil.

Lots of evil out there, apparently.

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#19

Post by cityofdelusion »

gwittel wrote: post #13
OldSchool wrote: post #5

Heat pumps are probably vastly under-installed in the southern part of the US because natural gas has been cheap and plentiful. If you live where natural gas isn't available your fuel option is propane. Propane tracks the price of gasoline, perhaps slightly lower in my experience. Here in Texas, electricity is only about $0.11/KWH so heat pumps work out like this: Heat Pump 5.0 COP : $6.50 per MMBtu Natural Gas : $12…

Modern heat pumps easily keep efficiency below freezing. Ours goes to 22F before there’s any efficiency drop. A different model goes below 0F (we just didn’t need it). But yes, many makers push the crappier old tech models that bail around 50F.

This wording is inaccurate. It isn't about "modern" heat pumps, its about if another $2-3,000 of electronics and clever injection systems are worth letting the refrigeration cycle work at the extremes. For a lot of the U.S. there is just no need to have a system that is a lot less repairable just to get that efficiency below 50F. The complexity differences between a variable speed system that can work over a 100F degree range and a standard single stage system with just a reversing valve are pretty big. The cost is basically never regained in savings in large parts of the southern U.S. so you just don't see them unless they are overseas models made with cheap labor; meant to be thrown away when they break.

Re: A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

#20

Post by amluto »

dlcarrier wrote: post #11
exabrial wrote: post #9

What actually happened [probably], in California: A heatpump salesman has a buddy that is a government official. Has outdated models he needs to liquidate. Salesman guy needs to be richer. Government official can't take the money directly, but sure would like to fly on salesman guys' private jet when they go golfing. Meanwhile government official guy goes and buys a bunch of Salesman company stock and profits explode…

I'm amazed by how difficult it is to get modern variable-speed heat pumps in California. You're lucky to get a two-speed unit, but they're only marginally better than single-speed. We're stuck with 80's technology because there's literally a list of what you're allowed to install. They claim it's to only allow energy efficient units, but the list is dominated by older inefficient models. On top of that, you can't hav…

Are you in the same California that I am?

We have the same problem that the entire country has with mediocre, overpriced contractors. And we also have the same problem with ever-changing refrigerant rules. But heat pump availability seems just fine here, even for VRF systems. (Actually, VRF systems seem to be very common among new installations lately.)

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