Viewing profile — vcf

Prohibitively expensive is all relative. Pre-Fable, I was getting fine on the 5x plan for 1-2 concurrent long-running tasks plus interactive work (I do a lot of coding for work, bu…

It launches these tasks in the background. It became really good at it a couple of months ago, now it sets monitors on timer (not something I instructed, so I assumed it’s part of …

I used to have some hooks for local notification, but lately I find that claude is pretty good at notifying through the app with remote control (but definitely not perfect)

I run a lot of data science-type analyses that can take up to hours at a time to run, so Claude is « monitoring » tasks most of the time. I have it on remote-control so I get notif…

I almost never went back to read the history, but now I often have Claude go through the history when I wonder how we got to a certain point. It can point me to the relevant issues…

Similar for me, I don’t want to babysit agents . I’m sticking with Python for the libraries (data science ecosystem), but I find that imposing ty and a few reasonable ruff rules (i…

I agree that the style is somewhat generic, but for things like new release announcements, I find that the common structure allows me to skim through much faster. I value that and …

Me too, I rarely hit limits anymore on the $100 Max, except for the brief period with Fable

At my university, students with verified disabilities are allowed to use a university-provided laptop (properly locked-down, with allowed tools such as screen readers). But these a…

It's simpler when looking at prediction markets because of bounded payoffs and the zero-sum nature, so these are pure trading gains. In equity markets, you have both the trading an…

Yes. It's not only that, as we also find very successful traders who take directional bets on elections and sports. But among the most successful traders, a large fraction are acti…

Thanks! No, we haven't looked at the capital "locked" in these markets (which is important considering there is no margin trading, at least not yet). Most markets have a short hori…

That's true, but you can invest in your infrastructure and data sources to be faster than most traders, which allows you to provide liquidity with a smaller spread (and snipe the s…

not AI slop, simply a copy paste if the abstract of the paper. journals in our field limit the allowed number of words, so the style can feel « unnatural » even when human-written

Yes, when you submit for publication. In our field, you rarely see one for pre-prints, unless you have one to disclose.

Yes, but the alternative (that some people are very good at forecasting) is also plausible. It's also useful to have a good prediction model and timely data sources when providing …

Yes, power laws are everywhere. The exact shape of each distribution varies, however, and little is known empirically about the distribution of trading profits in financial markets…

We don't know the exact benchmark, but your insight is correct. We provide a simulation similar to what you have in mind towards the end of the paper, but you can generate almost a…

Because it's not required and not common practice in our field at this stage. But none of us (I'm one of the authors) is affiliated with or has a financial interest in any predicti…

Not meant to sound like AI, but most academic journals limit abstracts to 100 words, so they rarely feel natural... I agree: insiders are hard to study because they are finite and …

We have a grad student working on matching markets across venues. Not a trivial task at scale, but we hope to look at that eventually.

We study trading gains and losses on Polymarket, the largest prediction market. Using 588 million trades ($67 billion in volume), we show that the gains are highly concentrated: th…

Interesting read. Regarding the relationship between volume and accuracy, there need not be one in limit-order-book markets like Kalshi and Polymarkets. In theory, as long as quote…

Thanks! I will look into these bugs, it’s a PIA because you can only debug those while there is a live game… Same with auto-refresh, it should work but for some reason it’s inconsi…