Viewing profile — tskj

I agree it does seem pretty plausible as some kind of iterated / timeless theory divorced from reality, but especially the assumption that time is irrelevant to the buyer seems com…

I'm curious if they're keeping up mostly due to distillation or how that works. Does anyone outside China know?

Yeah I guess it's fine to demand the situation actually conform to the assumptions of the theory, but these assumptions are so extreme they have literally never held for any situat…

But this conjecture predicts that Steam prices will drop immediately to their final low price. So Steam is actually also a counterexample.

Idk the obvious answer seems to be that buying now vs buying later isn't the same? Seems like a preposterous assumption; or rather an assumption that obviously never holds for any …

I think basically economists aren't that interested in looking at real world, messy data.

First of all, yes cutting developers to fund AI spend budgets, is the entire operating idea behind these AI companies; and most companies would love doing that. I'm not saying this…

No, but if you'd actually read what I wrote, you'd see that what I said (that Dario said) was: if you consider each model as its own company, they've all been individually profitab…

Unfortunately most of society and the economy is built on the foundational assumption of a growing (or at least stable) population. There will be some extremely tough challenges to…

Interestingly Wind Waker's art style was its main detractor among critics when it was released, which is wild and incomprehensible to me now. One of my favorite games of all time.

I don't know man, people basically aren't having sex already. The fertility rate is way below replacement in all modernized countries, half of gen Z has never had sex at all, contr…

Thanks, that's an interesting analysis. I'm not a Christian, but I definitely get the sense that we're playing with an extreme danger here, and that we're not being sufficiently hu…

Well that's the point about unknown unknowns though, we actually have no idea what the probability is. But we do know it's not low, that's the only unlikely scenario. We only know …

I think the case for this is pretty strong actually. Last year my company was maybe willing to pay $100 a month to Anthropic (per developer). Today we're all on the $300 plan witho…

Well yeah obviously they have to stop reinvesting more than they make at some point to become profitable. To be clear, I think what Dario was saying was that if you consider each m…

I guess I'll chime in as someone who thinks LLMs will be earth shattering, and specifically don't think it's a net positive for anyone but those whose power will be consolidated.

This seems distantly impossible right now, but for this reason, I predict that any species that survives this kind of "great filter" effect of accidentally messing up their genome …

I think this is decisively the wrong way to think about it. Yes, layering hypotheticals like that means that any one scenario is extremely unlikely to be the thing that gets you, b…

Why is it a designer's dream to hijack and control my scrolling experience? The scroll they've implemented is slow to respond, and has a weirdly low capped max speed. I don't under…

You didn't really have to use it more than a day honestly to tell what kind of shocking paradigm change it was. Man do I miss it.

Dario has publicly claimed each model has been profitable, even accounting for its training costs; it's just that each new model is exponentially more expensive to train than the l…

You might like Casey Muratori's "The Big OOPs" talk about this, if you haven't seen it yet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wo84LFzx5nI It's my favorite deep dive into the subject,…

I'm glad you like it. I feel validated not being the only one!

Journaling in the digital world quickly becomes editing or second-guessing what to write. Freedom is bad. So I flipped it: as a side project I've been working on a simple journalin…

I believe laws were broken, even though no one contested it with the statute of limitation.