Viewing profile — tripletao

I don't think you're disputing that the requested order would halt Kalshi's operations nationwide for as long as Kalshi remained headquartered in NYC though? The CFTC's framing is …

I think the point of confusion or obfuscation is that Kalshi is headquartered in NYC, so an order prohibiting them from offering bets/contracts "within or from New York" has the ef…

The most likely theory of artificial origin is that SARS-CoV-2 was deliberately created as a chimera of two natural sarbecoviruses with a human-designed furin cleavage site between…

You seem to be implying that railway spending was "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" in the late 1800s. If yes then can you trace that back to a methodology? I tried and found muc…

This seems to show the railroads peaking around 9% of GDP. While that's lower than some of the other unsourced numbers I've seen, it's much higher than the numbers I was able to fi…

> you seem to be narrowing your argument to "well for simple math it's less efficient" but that's not the argument being made at all. What? Unless the thing you want to compute hap…

> The core of this is the Arrhenius rate, (A × T^n × exp(-E_a/(R×T))), which involves an exponentiation, a division, a multiplication, and an exponential. On a GPU, that's multiple…

So to clarify, you think that replacing every multiplication with 24 transcendental function evaluations (12 eml(x, y), each of which evaluates exp(x) and ln(y) plus the subtractio…

It would almost always be much, much worse. Practical numerical libraries (whether implemented in hardware or software) contain lots of redundancy, because their goal is to give yo…

I'm not sure what you mean by this? It's true that any Boolean operation can be expressed in terms of two-input NAND gates, but that's almost never how real IC designers work. A ty…

If you already own highly appreciated QQQ in a taxable account then your options are limited, since moving to a different ETF would realize the capital gain. It may be preferable t…

Nobody cares even then, because any bias due to theoretical deviation from k-equidistribution is negligible compared to the desired random variance, even if we average trials until…

If you can find a case where this matters, then you've found a practical way to distinguish a CSPRNG seeded with true randomness from a stream of all true randomness. The cryptogra…

Ah, then I see where you got 4 assignments and 2x probability. Then I think that is the problem the author was worried about and that it would be a real concern with those numbers,…

This is correct, but for the author's example of randomizing turkeys I wouldn't bother. A modern CSPRNG is fast enough that it's usually easier just to generate lots of excess rand…

> If, say, you do the assignment from a 256 bit random number such that 4 of the possible assignments are twice as likely as the others under your randomization procedure Your numb…

Everyone agrees that most of the possible shuffles become impossible when a CSPRNG with 256 bits of state is used. The question is just whether that matters practically. The origin…

As you note, a 256-bit CSPRNG is trivially not equidistributed for a tuple of k n-bit integers when k*n > 256. For a block cipher I think it trivially is equidistributed in some ca…

Are they claiming that ChaCha20 deviates measurably from equally distributed in k dimensions in tests, or just that it hasn't been proven to be equally distributed? I can't find an…

It's good that Ioannidis improved the analysis in response to criticism, but that doesn't mean the criticism was invalid; if anything, that's typically evidence of the opposite. As…

I mean that in the context of "Most Published Research Findings Are False", he criticized work (unrelated to COVID, since that didn't exist yet) that used incorrect statistical met…

Ioannidis corrected for false positives with a point estimate rather than the confidence interval. That's better than not correcting, but not defensible when that's the biggest sou…

He published a serosurvey that claimed to have found a signal in a positivity rate that was within the 95% CI of the false-positive rate of the test (and thus indistinguishable fro…

Bank of America Travel Rewards is effectively 2.625% on everything if you put >$100k in a Merrill account and redeem the rewards against "travel" (including restaurants in any loca…

Their problem is with false positives they find, not true positives you find. My application for a credit card was somehow flagged as fraudulent. Chase repeatedly asked for additio…