Viewing profile — tersh

Cornell Law Professor gives a talk Nov 10 on how AI will impact copyright.

The median prediction for whether this gets independently confirmed is sitting at 25%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-supercon...

Yeah, Metaculus trains, identifies, and hires "Metaculus Pro Forecasters" for particular projects: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#what-are-pros

Forecasting in tournaments — head-to-head on the same set of questions — is the true test of forecasting ability.

The Metaculus prediction weights predictors by how accurate they've been.