Viewing profile — somebodythere

This prediction can't be scored until the 2028 election cycle. You may think it's very unlikely the prediction will have turned out to be correct by the 2028 election cycle, but th…

The thing about exponentials is if you admit 60%, it's pretty easy to admit 95%.

That is not true. You can tell you are on the latter part of the S-Curve you are on, if the rate of change of capabilities has decreased compared to before. That is not what we are…

[dead]

There is some evidence suggesting that "blue zones" are largely about pension fraud. https://fortune.com/europe/2024/12/14/are-blue-zones-myth-ex...

Using your API key in third-party harnesses has always been allowed. They just don't like using the subsidized subscription plan outside of first-party harnesses. So this seems to …

even a squirrel that needs guidance from a human grandmaster, is heavily inspired by existing games, and who can use Piece Mover library is incredible. 5 years ago the squirrel was…

No. You can point e.g. Opencode/Cline/Roo Code/Kilo Code at your inference endpoint. But CC has high install base and users are used to it, so it makes sense to target it.

Why would I ask the model to reverse the string 'glorbix,' especially in the context of software engineering?

You personally wouldn't use live captions and dubbing, so there's no point building it for the millions of people who need it as an accessibility feature?

Rufus is a Claude Haiku, yes.

I've seen a few of this type of thing pop up in search results ("DeepWiki" by Cognition.) I'm not a fan. It is just LLM contentslop, basically. Actual wikis written by humans are m…

I think this wound up being close enough to true, it's just that it actually says less than what people assumed at the time. It's basically the Jevons paradox for code. The price o…

Roughly, this is the Electronic Frontier Foundation (and comparable lobbying orgs in other countries.) However, an org like this doesn't have much power to compel individuals to gi…

LLM argumentative essays tend to have this "gish-gallop" energy; say a bunch of tenuously related and vaguely supported things, leave the reader wondering if it was the author who …

Maybe it's my engineer-brain talking, but "lab-grown" actually biases me towards the diamonds. Feels precise and futuristic.

I don't know if it matters. Even if the best we can do is get really good at interpolating between solutions to cognitive tasks on the data manifold, the only economically useful h…

My guess is that they did RLVR post-training for SWE tasks, and a smaller model can undergo more RL steps for the same amount of computation.

I see what you are getting at. My point is that if you train and agent and verifier/governor together based on rewards from e.g. RLVR, the system (agent + governor) is what will re…

Because if the agent and governor are trained together, the shared reward function will corrupt the governor.

I took your original post to mean that AI researchers' and AI safety researchers' expectation of AGI arrival has been slipping towards the future as AI advances fail to materialize…

AGI timelines have been steadily decreasing over time: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... (switch to all-time chart)