Viewing profile — sl8r

I left the TENET references on the cutting room floor. I too found it really surprising that the reverse-time equation has a simple closed form. Like, surely breaking a glass is ea…

The production of tears is left as an exercise to the reader. /s Thanks for reading. The 2D simulation section might be more interesting on a first read — it makes the math less my…

Hey, I’m the post author — thanks for reading. Theta represents all the model params — all the weights in the neural network. The convention is to write theta for the “learned” sco…

Hey! I’m the post author. Highly recommend Sander Dieleman’s blog for alternative interpretations https://sander.ai/2023/07/20/perspectives.html I personally find the SDEs the most…

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two h…

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-w...

I'm not saying that crises aren't predictable — I'm pointing out that institutional failure isn't always a leading indicator (as in OP's argument).

what major institution failed in the early stages of [1] the japan asset bubble or [2] the dot com bubble? Or farther back, the 1840s railroad mania or the south sea bubble? credit…

Interestingly, they’re actually used all the time in LBO models. Because the default is to sweep all FCF to pay down debt, but then the interest expense is dependent on FCF, which …

I made a streamlit app about Kelly last year, showing how to bet when you have an "edge" over a toy market of coin flippers: https://kelly-streamlit.herokuapp.com/ Other references…

If you're interested in this, check out Cover's Information Theory textbook — the rabbit hole goes much deeper. One of the most interesting examples, is that when you're betting on…

Won't you possibly get some information about some passengers by doing this, if you know / can figure out the distribution of the random numbers? E.g., say that the random numbers …

* "the dream machine" is an fascinating, joyful account of jr licklider's work in interactive computing * "hard landing" makes the airline industry seem tumultuous and exciting * "…

FWIW, I think the best "applications" (if they can be called that) come from domains like algebraic topology and algebraic geometry, where some concepts come up so frequently that …

Although, to play devil's advocate, you can prove results with set theory that you'd care about even if you weren't super interested in foundations, usually by playing with differe…

I mean... the parent post is right, the site I linked seems to be calculating CA state tax incorrectly. But: 42% is the effective tax rate (not marginal, average). And this is pret…

Some of these reported salaries would come close to that, if you include social security and medicare: For a $500k income in CA 29.59% Federal Income Tax + 10.48% CA Income Tax + 1…

Late to the party, but: > Both the historical and the control bucket used version A of the website, and they are consistent in their 2.0% conversion rate. Version B is different, a…

> Why would that be wrong? The issue is that modeling B with a distro centered around 2.5% ignores what we know about the historical conversion rate (2.0%) and the control bucket's…

Part of the issue is that you can't not assume a prior; it's unavoidable. The Bayesian POV just makes this assumption clear / explicit, while many frequentist methods (if naively a…

This is probably because Howard Marks popularized the idea under that name in "The Most Important Thing". He looks like FS's main source in the detail piece ( https://www.fs.blog/2…

One interpretation of Kelly is maximizing the e.v. of the log return. Another (equivalent) interpretation is maximizing the expected IRR -- which is where the "in the long run" com…