Viewing profile — sanderjd

Yes, but it's good for everyone that the strategy of attempting to commoditize the cash cow of a competitor exists.

What I think is that something the "exponential scaling to AGI" thesis pays too little attention to is resource constraints, and that this is the answer to your question. What will…

I don't know about "unquestionably", but yes, I think this is a better path than the proprietary models.

Yeah in our system, those kinds of governments happen when there is a split in Congress (one party has a majority in the House, the other in the Senate) and/or when Congress and th…

Yes that's the "this" I was referring to. I guess a day later I don't really agree with my own comment that this would be "great", but it would be a silver lining of that happening…

What was the quote? For what it's worth, I do really think that Amodei believes in and cares about safety. But that is not the same as believing that he is entirely altruistic or a…

What I would say is that to me the "Democrats look weak" thing is pretty silly. By design, if one party holds the presidency and both houses of Congress at once, they get to enact …

So, this might not be clear as an outsider to American politics, but to me this is not a "Republican vs. Democrat" thing. To me, it's about what kinds of Republicans and what kinds…

Yeah I think this is right. The best setup is when a true belief aligns with a competitive moat. I definitely believe that (to his credit!) Amodei is a true believer in safety. But…

Does this really seem exceedingly clever and hard to foresee to you? To me, it seems like a pretty standard regulatory capture strategy. This doesn't even mean that they're wrong a…

This is not an argument that the Chinese system of government is better than the US system. Like I said, I'm more optimistic than a lot of people I know that the US will be able to…

Yes, I've seen it! It's exciting, but I don't have enough information to say whether they are making "a real go of it". That is, it's unclear to me whether they have the tens to hu…

Sure, I don't have an argument with this. But I'm unconvinced that "therefore all models must be proprietary" follows at all naturally from it.

It would be awesome to have actual open source (and open weights) models! I hope someone will make a real go of this at some point.

Actually this would be pretty great, because it would incentivize US labs to pursue the open weights strategy for the same reasons China is currently. I genuinely think that this i…

The problem is that at the current moment with the current administration, it does not seem like we do "have laws and ways to fight against it". I'm more optimistic about the likel…

Why has "open weights" become synonymous with "Chinese" in the first place? To me, that is the problem. I also prefer US models. But I want there to be competitive open weights mod…

I mean... I'm not even extraordinarily cynical about this stuff, but to me this seems like a totally normal level of corporate gamesmanship? Companies look for and seek to maintain…

Same as it ever was.

I think #1 is quite a good thing, on net.

Great framing.

I do think the comment is right about understanding. I'm still feeling out what I think is the right level of understanding to invest in now. I think it is probably not the deep li…

Yep, different strokes for different folks.

I could be convinced of this narrative. Like, if someone writes a book about this, with good evidence of what caused this to happen, I might find that persuasive. But to me, what h…

I dunno. To me, this seems like kind of a counterexample (pun intended?) to that thesis. Would a conversation with another AI have been as fruitful as this conversation with Tao? C…