Viewing profile — peterbonney

The total open interest of all major prediction markets is barely over a billion dollars. (1) That's the total amount of money currently wagered on ALL contracts across all platfor…

I had the incredible good fortune to take one of his classes in college, and I loved it so much I took another just to learn from him again. A tremendous intellect AND an incredibl…

I’m not saying it is definitely a hoax. But I am saying my prior is that this is much more likely to be in the vein of a hoax (ie operator driven, either by explicit or standing in…

Correct, I haven’t set it up that way. That’s my point: I’d have to set it up to behave in this way, which is a conscious operator decision, not an emergent behavior of the bot.

Well I lol’d :)

Yes, this is the only plausible “the bot acted in its own” scenario: that it had some standing instructions awaiting the right trigger. And yes, it’s worrisome in its own way, but …

Of course it’s capable . But observing my own Openclaw bot’s interactions with GitHub, it is very clear to me that it would never take an action like this unless I told it to do so…

This whole situation is almost certainly driven by a human puppeteer. There is absolutely no evidence to disprove the strong prior that a human posted (or directed the posting of) …

My understanding is that the existence of the nuclear triad is entirely about maximizing the likelihood of maintaining a second strike capability in the event of a preemptive nucle…

I like this piece. Doing hard things for the simple reason that they're hard is good for the psyche. I truly believe that.

The devil is really in the details on how the orders were executed in the backtest, slippage, etc. Instead of comparing to the S&P 500 I'd love to see it benchmarked against a rang…

Having selected a 401k provider for a small ( 100 person) one, I can say that the big names make it prohibitively expensive for small companies to use them. And that expense ultima…

"weird, overconfident interns" -> exactly the mental model I try to get people to use when thinking about LLM capabilities in ALL domains, not just coding. A good intern is really …

You're right, my view is way out of date. I didn't realize CBOE had grown so much in straight equities trading. IEX is the best of the rest, but it's NYSE, NASDAQ and (to my surpri…

I'd say IEX has done remarkably well - it's not likely to displace NASDAQ or NYSE but it has solidified its place as the #3 US exchange by any reasonable measure. If TXSE achieves …

Exactly. Government entities have a funny habit of making their own decisions about what (and who) is and is not subject to their jurisdiction.

The more I learn about how AI companies trained their models, the more obvious it is that the rest of us are just suckers. We're out here assuming that laws matter, that we should …

Thank you. The New York City subway has its issues, but most of them boil down to the fact that the system is really old and hard to modernize. It also has unique strengths arising…

That might be the case in other cities, but in NYC the socioeconomic dynamics are less clear. It’s mostly affluent-to-rich suburbanites that drive to work from outside the city, wi…

Pricing is hard, no question about it. One solution to the “not all users are equal” problem is to create different types of users and price accordingly. That’s what we’re doing, a…

If you looked at how the average accountant spent their time before the arrival of the digital spreadsheet, you might have predicted that automated calculation would make the profe…