Viewing profile — pdubbs90

> their published probabilities are predictions for what would happen if the event occurred today. This is manifestly untrue. For the 2016 election 538 had a "Now-cast" that they v…

"People are jealous" seems to me like the uncharitable formulation. I'd phrase it more along the lines of: "we evolved in small tribes and are more acutely aware of relative status…

In their model the only benefit of talent is it makes you more likely to double your wealth given luck. This means that they assume luck is needed for advancement while talent is n…

Their model is if you have a lucky event you have P(talent) chance of doubling your capital and if you hit an unlucky event your capital is halved. Any step in time where you neith…

Can't speak for many professions, but a long series of interviews where you do a bunch of modules and meet a large proportion of your team is pretty typical in consulting.

This is missing the last point of my argument though. Paid professionals like those that build Photoshop or Google are filtered by the hiring process. Steemit (and I assume Woyano …

Maybe the distinction lies in the filtering. Stackoverflow and Wikipedia have high quality because only people that really care about a subject (and thus usually know a lot) will i…

I think the key distinction here is between “intolerance” and refusal of services. No one should be going out of their way to hear or publish the Nazi point of view, and people oug…

This is why I said "seem." Everything has some bias, but I think foreign publications usually have a less-relevant-to-me bias, which is about as close to unbiased as I can get.

I find the BBC and the Economist good for this reason. They are/seem a lot less biased than U.S. stuff through some combination of higher standards and that they'd rather manipulat…

The map shows life expectancy at birth, so healthy people moving from rural areas to cities shouldn't effect it.

Do you have any examples of this? This is the first I've heard of it.

I feel like disappointing research is going to be a given when you have such an obvious conflict. The author has a strong motivation to make Zestimates seem bad (the less reliable …

Fake news is a real problem, but this seems like an unfair no-win for Facebook from major media outlets. When they had more human editors on trending topics it was "Facebook is inj…

I'm very glad that where she wrote "Multiply that 0.6 percent chance of getting any given job by the 10 or so appropriate positions in the entire world, and you have about that sam…