Viewing profile — ozgooen

This sounds great. How suitable do you think this is for CPU-intensive work? I'm interested in having servers for scientific-computational work, which would be rather CPU-heavy. It…

Strongly thirded. I'm not sure I agree with absolutely everything they say, but overall I think they have a far more pragmatic and honest set of answers than any competing advice I…

Please do so. The UI is all open-source react, so you may be able to copy some components directly if you wanted. I'd be happy to help people out with this if you have requests.

You can copy & paste an array of samples and Guesstimate will sample from that cluster. For instance, try pasting the following into the value field of a cell: [1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,3,3…

On the question of "what are other ways of doing MC analysis", there are two approaches. The first is to use Excel apps like Oracle Crystal Ball or @Risk. These are aimed at busine…

You can choose from a few distributions (normal, lognormal, uniform) in the main editor, or you can type many others using the function editor. The sidebar describes all of them.

In my experience, many consequential business decisions aren't even made with probability distributions, let alone probabilistic models with realistic correlations. I would general…

I'd definitely agree that correlations can be a really big deal, especially in very large models like that one. Guesstimate doesn't currently allow for correlations as you're proba…

I've heard of it being used in a few classes. There was one estimation session with one group of what I remember to be 8th-graders. Honestly, I really don't think you need to be gr…

We're keeping it running but aren't actively improving it.

Thanks for the feedback. We have some documentation [here]( https://docs.getguesstimate.com/ ), and some in the sidebar entree. Generally, we recommend lognormal distributions for …

We initially had a lot of uncertainty on how to price it but wanted to experiment with more users rather than fewer, with the premise that if it were very successful we could scale…

Cofounder Here: Happy to see this on hnews again. Update: Matthew (the other cofounder) and I got Guesstimate to a stage we were happy with. After a good amount of work it seemed l…

I guess another question here is what are heuristics for how many images are necessary for different levels of functionality. The demos look pretty impressive, but I'm not sure how…

Is Lobe only for image data? Would it work for inputs that are text files or similar?

Very good to know. Right now you can choose between normal, uniform, and a few very simple discreet distributions, but not others. When I built this, my first goal was to make any …

Thanks for letting me know. It's definitely not mobile compatible yet. I think making it viewable on mobile devices soon is doable. Making them easily editable will be much harder …

Guesstimate doesn't yet support correlations. Right now we assume everything is independent, though of course variables are often correlated with their outputs.

That makes sense. It would be very useful to see estimates of how well Presidential candidates would do if they got elected. In the future, one idea would be to keep track of peopl…

"Is there support for µ±σ instead of [low,high] in the works? " - There used to be. I'll be considering ways of adding it back. "Or support for numerical distributions?" - By numer…

Right now the vast majority of it is open source. There is a component that is not: the rails server, but that's pretty tiny. The client can be developed on without that. If there'…

Good catch! Right now the main distribution types are normal and uniform. In the video, I showed normal distributions, which have long tails in both directions. In this case, a nor…

Sorry to hear about Intercom, will investigate shortly. I heard someone else had a similar issue. In response to your points: - Other distribution types are the #1 most requested f…

That's definitely on the agenda. Curious, what are you interested in a JSON serialization for?