Viewing profile — oudlys

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I'm happy to make that bet. Just not for money. I don't gamble at all anywhere in my life. But I'm happy to write something publicly like "Simianwords was right about this predicti…

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>you took a single report that agreed with your statistics These are not my statistics. I'm not affiliated with Faros at all. I built an analysis on top of their reporting. And, it…

>Understanding what is going on with AI productivity is … frustrating to say the least. Agreed. I think one of the hardest things about it is that productivity != value. You can pu…

I read this today and found it super valuable in evaluating METRs research. https://arachnemag.substack.com/p/the-metr-graph-is-hot-garb...

March 2026: https://www.faros.ai/blog/ai-acceleration-whiplash-takeaways Faros would tell you shops are shipping 16% more PRs with heavy AI use. https://unessays.substack.com/p/tal…

Wow. This deserves to be much more widely read. Thank you for this.

Productivity != value. Thanks for the story.

>This is a ridiculous stance to take. I encourage you to be more curious. We're just talking. We would learn more from each other without these strong statements.

>Respectfully, your link is not very convincing. I'd love to understand why. This would be valuable feedback for me as I try to make my writing and exposition better. Also, if you …

>"On unbounded measures, growth is exponential" Maybe. There was a great comment in the thread on Fable 5 yesterday about benchmark comparisons between Fable and the latest opus mo…

>This is basically a conspiracy theory I think this is pretty uncharitable, especially when I've provided you with a dataset you can evaluate yourself and an argument you can revie…

Are we plotting against cost? How is the capability advancement vs dollars paid for development? By my read of the (very sparse) data, we're getting linear improvements in capabili…

>So from a holistic perspective, I think intentionally limiting your own AI usage is the best approach for maximum long-term productivity. I think this is right. They are much bett…

Is it bitter or is it beautiful? The idea that speed is the only thing that matters is a modern view that you can surrender any time you want. A child is a joy. Nothing is wrong wi…

By “break” I don’t mean “won’t function”. I mean “won’t deliver on their value proposition”. A functioning product is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for technology to …

The report was not paywalled for me. It just required a work email. Which is totally fair from my perspective. Faros is providing a ton of value with the report. People do deserve …

I'm quite fond of this play on "if a tree falls in the woods": "If an LLM builds a feature, and no one uses it, did it make value?"

I appreciate you looking out. Thank you.

I get wanting to wait for more data. And thinking that LLMs have improved enough that this will change. My view is that it's not really about how good the models are - it's about h…

Sure. But that's not, in my view, how most people use the word productivity when describing LLM use. In my field - operations - productivity is usually described as some rate of pr…

It scares me too. I actually think this is precisely the reason LLMs can't be the basis for a technological revolution. Because it's only one way. Like, if you have a compiler, and…

I think we mostly agree. I think I just disagree about the power of the LLM to deliver revolutionary innovation. That's something you do. Not the machine. And, pretty soon on your …

I think its worse than that. I admit that if a small team or an individual uses an LLM, it's likely they can create value faster. I think as soon as you don't own the responsibilit…