Viewing profile — nathan_young

If there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?

Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5 - P(bird fl…

They came out of Manifold. Though I acknowledge that doesn't really answer your question.

Ad what % is it crazy shit? I'm at about 7% of human disempowerment/exctinction, so it probably won't happen. Am I crazy?

According to a study of 700 ML researchers (not AI safety) the median chance that that the long-run effect of advanced AI on humanity will be “extremely bad (e.g., human extinction…

If you see any tech tools or data please add them here: Coronavirustechhandbook.com

A lot of these tools have very little money or support. Some of them have had 1m+ views last election. If something interests you, you could offer to help the developers involved. …

Please add it in.

We (Newspeak House) would love to see one created. If you know people in that space, put up some tech and share it. Feel free to use our template if you credit us.

Feel free to edit text to note if tools are biased/add tools with different biases. (disclosure, I helped initiate the doc)