Viewing profile — muggermuch

Sort of! We came up with a backronym just in case: Scenario Oriented Reasoning and Outcome Simulations.

A few days ago, we soft-launched Soros [0], our agentic intelligence for geopolitical simulation, on HN. [1] In this post, we walk through everything: how we designed it, the engin…

> because this is marketed as being for macro investing, I would expect to see a level of rigor and quantitative analysis consistent with that. Thanks for bringing this up - while …

First, thank you so much for signing up to try out Soros! You are absolutely right, of course, to ask about accuracy. TL;DR: we don't have any formal calibration data yet. The reas…

Exactly! That's how it works - the static demo is just that, static. Would love to onboard you for the full thing if you'd like! Just LMK (team@lookbacklabs.com) or add your info o…

> So someone monitoring Polymarket could have reached the same conclusion? Maybe? If they are professionally trading prediction markets, I'm pretty sure that would be the case. Pol…

Hmmm, good question. I think one interesting incident for us was when we saw scenario probabilities being updated near last Friday EOD for the US-Iran conflict, biased towards furt…

* This brings us to a larger question - why did we build Soros? First, let's address the elephant in the room: we were inspired by George Soros' theory of reflexivity and how human…

Hi HN! We are Anshuman and Karén, the co-founders of Lookback Labs and the co-designers of Soros ( https://www.asksoros.com/ ). Soros is a compound AI system built carefully from t…

Absolutely heart-warming to see some of the gentle tech titans of yesteryear still actively releasing products.

This scenario is oddly terrifying.

This is amazing - just the tool I needed; thank you so much!

Cool anecdote, thanks for sharing!

Good to see you here, Dave! Glad you decided to open source LLM Catcher.

I like this a lot! But: I feel the more of these services come to being, the more likely it is that every website starts putting up gates to keep the bots away. Sort of like a weir…

As a Harper's and Lapham's Quarterly subscriber, I have been a huge fan of his quirky editorial style. Specifically, I'd like to call out his podcast ("The World In Time"). Its pas…

> in Oshiro, i had met a guardian of time, a man who, year after year, preserved a slice of japan's essence, ensuring that even in the heart of its busiest city, the song of the bu…