Viewing profile — monorailkitty

I agree but set B is not a uniformly chosen subset of A in this case. That is the core of the trick. The rule for choosing B is intuitively uniform but actually slightly favours fa…

Yeah, what matters is the contents of the initial set of families over which we determine probability. "A man has two children, and one is a son born on a Tuesday. What is the prob…

> I have two children. One or more is a son. Exactly one of them was born on a Tuesday. I'm not sure that's what you are supposed to infer. Looking at your earlier statement: > I h…