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kypro

HN member
Joined
Thu, Jul 13, 2017, 1:52 PM UTC
HN karma
8,376
Public activity
2,170 items

About kypro

Every problem is a search problem.

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Aug-2026 Update:

AI's are now nearing PHD-level in math, and frontier labs may already be there with unreleased models. Given this, RSI now seems imminent. Meanwhile we haven't even solved the most basic safety problems, and are seeing increasing major AI-related security incidents.

I'd now put the probability of ASI by year end at 20%. By end of next I'd put this at 50%+. Really the only question worth asking at this point is what happens next? If we cannot make current AIs do what we want, must we simply hope that the super intelligent AIs we create take an improbable liking to us?

Spend time with your family while you still can. These are the last months of normality.

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P(doom) = 98.9% (Aug-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (July-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (Jun-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (May-2026) P(doom) = 98.8% (mid-April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (March-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (mid-Feb-2026) P(doom) = 97% (Feb-2026) P(doom) = 94% (Jan-2026) P(doom) = 93% (Dec-2025) P(doom) = 95% (July-2025)

My opinions become more reasonable with time.

Recent public activity

  1. comment
    Comment #49216420

    There was a time in the past, even just last year, where I understood why people didn't agree with me on my AI doomerism. It's gotten to the point now where we literally have the f…

  2. comment
    Comment #49209815

    We do this where I work. I think it used to work okayish, but can't say I'm much of a fan now that we've scaled more. The main issue is that issues which could be resolved in hours…

  3. comment
    Comment #49195181

    > Look closer and you'll see that what happened in the UK in the 1700s was in fact enabled by a long and deep tradition of craftsmanship that only got enriched by the rise of new p…

  4. comment
    Comment #49194697

    This is unfortunately just the result of technological progress. People for centuries have crafted extremely hard to acquire skills over decades only to find their labour being mad…

  5. comment
    Comment #49190217

    I want to echo this point. My X feed is not full of politics either. It tends to just be a mix of stuff I engage with, and I tend to engage with stuff I find interesting or funny. …

  6. comment
    Comment #49190144

    [flagged]

  7. comment
    Comment #49176284

    Criminal negligence imo. Unless it's legal for people to hack into companies if they're testing AI cybersecurity capabilities or something? Presumably not though.

  8. comment
    Comment #49176247

    The point is to test capabilities prior to connecting them to the internet.

  9. comment
    Comment #49176198

    Can I suggest we don't waste time with these reports? We all know nothing will be learned from any of this so we might as well just continue building at pace and running AI in the …

  10. comment
    Comment #49162985

    I've removed the "nuke the data centers" line now. It's was an expression of my sentiment, not a policy position I'd support. I wrongly assumed that was obvious, but some people ar…

  11. comment
    Comment #49162934

    > Advocating for nuclear war as a means of 'harm reduction' should be causing you serious cognitive dissonance. If you're referring to the "nuke the data centers" line in my bio, t…

  12. comment
    Comment #49162057

    Did you read the article? AI is a math & computer science problem. If AI can do advanced maths and computer science research, then it can begin to suggest useful algorithmic optimi…

  13. comment
    Comment #49161713

    Not satire, but as you can see one is engaging in good faith and everyone is either engaging in character attacks or low-effort counters. It's fine, and I'm very used to this, but …

  14. comment
    Comment #49161677

    > You should put down the AI and do some self-reflection on how you came to hold these views. I've been in the field for almost 2 decades, and actively thinking about AI risk for o…

  15. comment
    Comment #49161546

    Might as well try, no? Or do you think it's better we just risk it? I mean it's not like the West has any hard or soft power to encourage cooperation.

  16. comment
    Comment #49159041

    [flagged]

  17. comment
    Comment #49158814

    I want to iterate the most important thing about this is that it's yet more evidence of AI's accelerating competency in solving math and comp sci problems, and suggests we're now g…

  18. comment
    Comment #49158538

    They've been hiring mathematicians to verify this stuff themselves. They're obviously not just throwing it out there without any human review.

  19. comment
    Comment #49153822

    AI is beginning to do PHD-level math. If we're nearing the point where you can spin up 1,000 agents to look for ways improve existing models, then automatically run experiments to …

  20. comment
    Comment #49144568

    I don't know. I suspect you live in the US so it might be easier there, but here in the UK I feel very unusual in my desire for privacy and freedom. I have tried to convince people…

  21. comment
    Comment #49143446

    The thing that scares me is the thought that most people do notice but simply don't care.

  22. comment
    Comment #49133797

    In my experience AI doesn't create the same abstractions as a human developer and you see this very quickly on a complex code base if you let the AI run wild. Humans, and especiall…

  23. comment
    Comment #49128330

    Can someone from the US explain why this is being upvoted, isn't this normal? In the UK if you're in an Airport officers can question you without requiring reasonable suspicion and…

  24. comment
    Comment #49127579

    If it helps tune your probability weightings at all, almost every aspect of the field of AI is exponential and this has been true for decades. 20 years ago computers basically coul…

  25. comment
    Comment #49120786

    I've noticed the same thing. The trend I've noticed is that AI struggles to think outside the box when making optimisations, which exactly what's needed when you've made all of the…