Viewing profile — joshuafkon

In Tetlock's 20-year Expert Political Judgment study, domain experts performed no better in their own field than outside it — and "hedgehog" specialists actually did worse when pre…

I'm the author of a new preprint that tries to resolve why major U.S. sexual behavior surveys appeared to report contradictory trends over the past decade. The key move is separati…

America's TFR is 1.67. I wanted to understand what it would actually take to get back to replacement (2.1), so I built a simulator where you can stack policies and see the projecte…

Archive Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20200214010037/https://www.barro...

Although the really bleak graph is when you look at the long-term debt projections given the retirement of the baby boomers. The US and UK both publish long-term projections: https…

I thought the Financial Times had a more in-depth analysis of the structural reasons behind the spike in the REPO market than I've seen elsewhere. I've seen a few sources point out…