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jonbecker

HN member
Joined
Tue, Jun 04, 2024, 3:18 PM UTC
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98
Public activity
14 items

About jonbecker

I'm Jonathan Becker, a 23 year old senior software engineer. from the United States. I'm a strong advocate for decentralization and building open-source software. Some things I'm passionate about include low-level programming, compilers, cryptography, and swimming.

Recent public activity

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    Comment #46682944

    If we weight by contracts purchased the gap is 1.02%, dollar weighted the gap is 1.00%. I'm glad you enjoyed the paper :)

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    Comment #46682707

    super interesting, re: spending money to move the line is just another form of non-profit-seeking "consumption." i didn't filter for manipulation specifically, but i did find that …

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    Comment #46682649

    i understand how probability works. the "93 cents" vs "43 cents" comparison is looking at realized historical data, not theoretical odds. if the markets were efficiently priced, yo…

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    Comment #46680516

    tl;dr dataset: 72.1m trades and $18.26b volume on kalshi (2021-2025) core findings: longshot bias: well documented longshot bias is present on kalshi. low probability contracts are…

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