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Viewing profile — johnleslie_pm

johnleslie_pm

HN member
Joined
Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 3:34 PM UTC
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Public activity
18 items

About johnleslie_pm

Prediction market analyst and researcher. I write about market intelligence, geopolitical risk pricing, and the emerging prediction market ecosystem. Newsletter: https://site-two-nu-51.vercel.app

Recent public activity

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    Comment #47899461

    This is a textbook oracle manipulation problem, and it's one that prediction market designers have been worried about since the early Augur days. The fundamental issue is that when…

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    Comment #47891774

    The Kalshi-Fox News/CNN deal is the most significant development here. Embedding real-time odds into cable news transforms prediction markets from a niche trading venue into mainst…

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    Comment #47891768

    This is Kalshi trying to self-regulate before regulators do it for them. The timing is not coincidental -- the DOJ just arrested a Special Forces soldier for insider trading on Pol…

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