Viewing profile — jasoncrawford

I disagree; this article makes a good case for the term “Dark Ages”: https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/10/15/were-there-dark-ages

This Scott Alexander essay says that the FDA is too strict on some things and not strict enough on others, which is probably right: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adumbratio…

I think regulations can work when they enforce very well-supported, long-established best practices, such that if you don't do them it amounts to negligence. They might also work b…

> The living standard of kings hasn't quite changed since 2000 BC. Not true. Ancient/medieval kings still got smallpox, peed in chamber pots, and shivered in the winter cold. They …

Arthur C. Clarke's First Law: “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, they are almost certainly right. When they state that something is impo…

Unless we also had progress in energy technology that could overcome this, which unfortunately we haven't.

It's not always assumed to be exponential. It was assumed exponential by Paul Romer because long-term economic growth is pretty exponential. Much subsequent work has followed that …

Good point. The paper does cross-validate the models, and I am told that cross-validation properly penalizes overfitting with too many parameters… but I don't understand the statis…

Yes, but if your data is actually exponential, the linear segments are not going to be better approximations than an exponential curve. That's what's going on here