Viewing profile — erwald

To get the sure-to-be-correct answer to the question they were tasked with answering?

> Furthermore, export controls, for which Dario Amodei openly advocates, are already prompting China to build its own chips. China is, of course, behind the West, but not as much a…

> Anthropic already possesses the compliance, legal, and evaluation infrastructure needed to satisfy such a regime. A university lab, startup, or community does not, even if they s…

Bans on Chinese open weight models being used in the US and bans on AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment being exported to China are two extremely different things, a…

Lots of people paying for a product they use is more or less the opposite of an MLM

Right, and the comment I replied to was about revenue, not profit. (That said, while I don't think Anthropic is already profitable, it reportedly expects its first operating profit…

Those seem like reasonable questions about future margins and moats, but I was making the narrower point that revenue is in fact growing quickly, contra the comment above mine

I wasn't saying anything about costs, only that revenue is growing quickly

No, I wasn't claiming that revenue scales with headcount, though it probably does to some extent. The point is that these companies' revenue is large and growing quickly, which is …

It's relevant to the claim I was replying to, which was that revenue isn't growing, not to the question of whether the spending will pay off

Maybe, but that's a different claim. You wrote that the improvements are "not translating to a dramatic increase in revenue", but going from about $1B to about $30B run rate in 16 …

The point is that revenue is large and growing quickly, which is what the comment above mine denied

That's a point about margins, not revenue

True, but the comment I was replying to was about revenue, not costs

"Anthropic and OpenAI generate a lot of revenue with relatively few employees – an estimated $9M and $5.5M in revenue per employee (RPE), respectively. If either company were to go…

Master craftsmen paid apprentices almost next to nothing, and they were often contractually guaranteed to stick around for many years, so the teaching was a kind of wage and also a…

No, 2027 was never their median forecast; it was their modal forecast. See https://blog.aifutures.org/p/clarifying-how-our-ai-timelines... It's more like it moved from 2028-2032 to…

I think electricity doesn't matter that much (yet) because China is bottlenecked on chips. I think the incentives/directives to build on Huawei also doesn't matter that much yet be…

Yeah, to be clear I'm pretty excited about confidential computing and startups building on it, like Tinfoil, for some use cases. I just wanted to point out it's far from adequate f…

Where did you get this information? I think it's wrong -- I'm pretty sure they used the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) under the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), which is…

Confidential computing is not secure against a potential attacker who has physical access to the hardware. The CC security guarantees explicitly assume the attacker has no physical…

I don't think ITAR has anything to do with any of this.

What are your general, vibes-based impressions of Mythos so far?