Viewing profile — eliotho

it came from the data (UN Comtrade) that notably doesn't include sanctioned oil flows (Iran, etc). On top of that, China's reserve levels are a state secret, yet, the model's frame…

Thanks! Two answers (repeated in other comments): UN Comtrade data doesn't include sanctioned oil (Iran), and nobody (except their government) knows China's actual stockpile. The m…

Thanks, added to list of possible UX improvements

Yes, and the network setting is flexible enough to allow smaller supply chains where nodes don't have price setting power

the models, proofs and writing are mine (with some AI assistance for proofreading/formatting). AI was mostly used in the visualization and the rerunning of multiple scenarios of th…

This pipeline predates the data but its oil is routed to Bab-el-Mandeb which is in the network. That being said, the numbers are more of a sensible baseline as the actual flows for…

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France imports 0 oil directly through Hormuz, but when the Strait closes, all other countries start raising their safety stock which increases oil prices. This makes France's stock…

this is an interesting market design question: the point is that tapering would require everyone knowing everyone else's depletion clocks. As they are unknown (sanctioned trade, no…

This is an interesting insight, as usable reserves < reported reserves the clocks in the model are optimistic

Fair catch, the data predates the reroute. Although this pipeline is routed to Bab-el-Mandeb which is in the network

That's actually the intended behavior: while reserves are silently being spend is when the crisis is brewing. Although the main point is that nobody knows China's reserves, but thi…

Thank you! Much appreciated. On the suspense, we are all riding the same train :$

And this is what the model price formation assumes, and in fact, the silent mechanism that makes the crisis worse. Reserves silently deplete for each country, and each epoch where …

There are two versions of the model: -The one rendered by default (called Endogenous), with endogenous price that affects the demands according to the price elasticity slider. Refl…

Thank you. Yes, in desktop there is one (that might still be going a little bit too fast), but in mobile it might not be that easy to find. Perhaps I will slow down the speed in mo…

This works as the same feature reversed. Will think of a way of adding something like this

Fair point. Actually this is both a semantics oversight on my part and also expected behaviour. at 100% retained there's no shock, but the model's countries target consumption plus…

Much appreciated, server seems to be (fingers crossed) going strong so far

This is a nice idea. I will build this a feature on the scenarios menu. And it would give an estimate of how much time doing this buys China under different configurations

Which is the interesting game-theoretic aspect of the whole conflict. China really hasn't revealed their hand

Exactly, which is what makes the simulation interesting because nobody really knows China's reserves clock. But with the tool, you can put your guess number and see that the game o…

Thanks, the modeling is similar math to the financial banking networks paper by Eisenberg and Noe Systemic Risk in Financial Systems (used as a stress tool by regulators after the …

For the importer nodes those are IEA mandates. In the specific China case, the UN Comtrade data doesn't report sanctioned oil (Iran)

and the interesting thing is that the common factor is that all these crises (oil, financial, gas) spread silently until a node collapses and there is a domino effect over the whol…