Viewing profile — dthunt

I've done this for an hour or so on occasion. I don't find it a particular strain. I may be doing something different than what you are doing, though.

When I meditate, I usually notice my feet, for example. I notice my feet if I get a little bit jittery, and for me that's sufficient to cut a lot of the whammy out of strong emotio…

Name the next plausible explanation and how likely you think it is relative to 'save money, screw your data'. I think you'll have takers on a bet at those odds, given what you just…

Retracted then. I hadn't noticed that.

Probably not training "matching", given that there is no place where you indicate what the correct thing was. It could be gathering data about how people draw shapes in general, bu…

Well, he's ALLEGED to have done that. People are becoming increasingly interested in the case because it's looking probable that enforcement/prosecution has done something untoward…

It may help to rewrite those in your head to, "as an experienced systems administrator who knows how these particular config files work" or perhaps "how config files work in genera…

I am a strong advocate of the following principle: Defeat your enemies. Rackspace deserves some big props, here. More should follow their example.

It seems really unlikely to me that they would have set up this system the incredibly dumb way.

The end result is that the public doesn't know about the rule, so they see psychologists acting a certain way and frequently think it's actually epistemically bad, or impossible, t…

APA should ditch the Goldwater rule.

If you ask people to estimate the number of protons inside the sun, you might develop a peak around some sorts of numbers, but it's not likely to be a particularly good estimate.

I am going to challenge that belief by asking you to do the following: Try solving the blue and red pots problem, given only a single observation. Now try again, this time with two…

If you can find that, provide a link. I strongly doubt people are particularly good (without applying some sort of rigor) at estimating beans in jars.

They're hypothetical inferences, but the downside to using actual realistic examples is that even when they're meticulously researched, people nitpick them to a degree that baffles…

Not only cheated, but also destroyed an opportunity to learn something valuable. GP can, however, take other calibration tests elsewhere. Here is one: http://calibratedprobabilitya…

Yes. The problems absolutely illustrate the concept if you have a reliable overconfidence confidence bias. You do not need a background in psychology to understand "Hey, I feel 90%…

Yeah, this is a fair criticism. There are explicit bounds encoded in each problem and when those conflict with your estimates, you will be frustrated. Haven't got a frigging clue i…

There is no graduation ceremony.

It probably would have been a lot smarter to post this somewhere inside the continental US.

Police organizations don't seem to be particularly good at learning lessons from these sorts of mishaps. I heard a story a number of years ago in Silver Spring, MD, about how the p…

Oh, part of that explanation assumes you know how to use Bayes' Theorem. If you don't, this doesn't look like a simple explanation, it probably looks like the ravings of a madman b…

The full text of a draft version is out there, actually. I bought my copy, though. :)

Look. I'll explain it really simple. He's saying it has to be > 0, because he is unwilling to rule out ESP as a logical possibility. If he assigned it 0, no matter how good the exp…

It's actually not a problem. You can come up with any number of hypotheses about coins. Some of them take the form, "This coin will produce in the next 1000 typical flips". That hy…