Viewing profile — ddp26

Not forecasting though. You can't goodhart predicting real-world events

This seems bad for AI safety/risk. Does DeepMind have any checks on model alignment now? What's stopping them from using AI for military/surveillance purposes?

Would it though? Meta and Microsoft have had very scandalous AI things happen, and their shares didn't tank (or quickly recovered)

I would have thought Jeff Dean would never ever leave Google. What on earth is going on?

*Title:* Show HN: FutureSearch, AI forecasting you can verify AI forecasting is now approximately superhuman. Today, FutureSearch is exiting our long public beta and launching. We …

Isn't this the same as saying "utility regulators delaying connecting new power to the grid hiked electricity prices on the public by $23B?" When my apples are expensive, I don't g…

> I can ask an agent to add OAuth, you can ask one to add caching, and somebody else can ask one to rebuild the database from first principles and make the UI pink. Each change can…

When I know something is (primarily) AI generated, I lose interest. The exception is when it's about a niche I care about, e.g. an analysis of opening trends of early world chess c…

Is it possible GPT-5.6 is not a very aligned model?

People have been making claims about the commoditization of llms since chatGPT, and they've been wrong every time as quality and prices and differentiation have increased.

But Scott's point is more: why even have markets? Once you have the superforecasting available on the questions you care about, why do you need to publish it for everyone to also r…

Almost by definition, once AI forecasters are in the market, they won't (all) be beating the market. But why evaluate AI forecasters by beating the market? Do we evaluate deep lear…

Doesn't this argument prove too much? Why does AlphaSense sell their company research instead of using it to trade themselves? Why do people work on open source time series forecas…

Indeed they are! It's funny, in Sept 2024 I and others wrote about how the AI Superforecasters _weren't_ here, despite several claims that they were: https://www.lesswrong.com/post…

Yeah, a great developer I know showed me how he could use it to get a safe dev container for Claude Code, in a way that wasn't doable with Docker.

Fair point.

Is this the trend? There have been various points where one of Anthropic or OpenAI was substantially ahead. Sure, many times they're close, but now doesn't seem like one of them.

Based on my conjecture that Anthropic is ahead on AI research, and that OpenAI doesn't know how to make Fable-class models.

I'm going to pre-register my prediction that GPT-5.6 Sol is significantly behind Claude Fable 5, as evaluated by general consensus once time has passed for people to get familiar w…

If it's helpful, I'm still holding at July 9 as my median date that Fable gets re-released to Americans, the news of the last 24 hours didn't update the model meaningfully.