Viewing profile — davidmanheim

Basic microeconomic theory can tell us a lot about the questions of where profits will go. Here's an interactive explainer and LLM-friendly source package showing how those dynamic…

Yes - I'm fairly culturally conservative, but very much don't support the (so-called) conservative political leaders basically anywhere.

Here are some good lists; Rob Wiblin https://medium.com/@robertwiblin/things-i-recommend-you-buy-... Rosie Campbell https://www.facebook.com/ardenlk/posts/10156553178262333 Sam Bow…

...but progress was slower. Exponential growth means it grows faster now than it did then. And yes, relative poverty matters greatly, but absolute poverty is a real thing even in t…

I don't know enough about heat pumps to comment about the substance of this report, but looking at the list of their other reports at the end,it seems worth pointing out the heavil…

It's more specific than that once they actually operationalize the question: This question resolves as YES if, in Meta's 2024 Q4 Quarterly Adversarial Threat Report, Meta claims th…

> Nowhere do they define "AGI" Ummm, maybe you should have looked? At the top of the very first prediction, here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... We…

Well, I do know something about those topucs, but here's a twitter thread from someone else who thinks the people worried about risks are silly, who's definitely an expert, with sp…

Yeah, and the idea that these programs can't have affordances is silly reliance on a definition that ignores what can happen. It clearly proves too much - humans have a limited act…

"The universe is not deterministic." Maybe not. I think that's a big claim, and it's being made, not proved. But let's say it's right, ignoring the massive burden of proof. We can …

You sure know a lot about what a set of poorly defined future technologies will and will not do!

...it sounds like your dog is ruining your productivity. Are you doing anything to adjust your pet's schedule or otherwise deal with that?

We should probably ask someone who took a heat transfer or other undergrad physics class, but from my basic understanding of the physics, "concentrating heat" isn't really a thing …

I've spoken with at least half the people they thanked for input, and several of the people cited.

Ethics is about decisions, and most of the discussions about the "difficulty" of infinite ethics only work if you ignore that. (And so it's particularly frustrating that they didn'…

Yes. Turns out that commercial transactions happen in a social context, and even when it doesn't come back to bite you financially, sometimes paying less has social costs that are …

Agreed - but it's a larger project than this post. That said, I'd be very interested in people building models of this that are operationalizable and falsifiable! If anyone is inte…

Also, why is any pizza ever getting cut into 12 slices?

It certainly matters that Mesopotamian agriculture had a collapse in ca. 2,200 BCE, but it doesn't matter whether you point out that it was the Akkadian empire founded by Sargon wh…

Thanks for linking, and it's definitely a more polished version of what I was thinking - but after I discussed it with various researchers, as I noted in the post, the forum post i…

Thanks for trying to provide feedback, but I think all you're doing is harping on non-universal definitions and noting debated historical points, most of which I'm familiar with bu…

No - those systems simulate "control" at the level of giving commands, not actual motor control. So practically, current AI can win at Go and play at superhuman levels, but still c…

People may want to see the appendix to our RAND report on areas related to DARPA's focus, for more depth on the relevant uses of automation, ML, and AI - https://www.rand.org/pubs/…