Viewing profile — cthor

Switching costs are still low. Anthropic can only do this while they maintain frontier status, and while they do, they can charge whatever they want. An Oracle or Broadcom would fa…

These are sensible criticisms and things one should be mindful of when using prediction markets as a signal (I would also add an awareness of how discount rates affect the reliabil…

That is not surprising. If your point is that 10% is not 5% and the odds change over time then you have unreasonable expectations. It's not an oracle. Where did I say it was? I sai…

The utility is a fairly robust signal about the probability of certain events occurring. It's pretty helpful for grounding your beliefs about the world (in certain domains). For ex…

They are worried about both risks.

This is an insane response to someone having their carefully written work casually bastardized by an LLM that rewrote the entire design spec without even being informed. The amount…

I read what you wrote and read it as sophistry. You reply by adding more. "It's why you believe [...]" But you don't know what I believe. "Scott Adams claimed [...] because of a re…

Winning a primary would be nice.

They do. They understand you cited ADL in lieu of an argument. If it could stand on its own you wouldn't need the citation and guilt-by-association. They understand the culmination…

This demonstrates where a lot of the mismatch in impressions of this tech arise. The thousandth amateur Wonderwall rendition is not at all interesting as a piece of recorded music,…

Not that this affects the political calculus (where perception may as well be reality), but the cost burden specific to universal healthcare is actually opposite this intuition. Th…

https://cthor.me/SSG Getting someone else's SSG to do exactly what you want (and nothing more) takes longer than just building it yourself. Juice isn't worth the squeeze.

You must not have looked very far. Here's one example from circa 2011 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iN9E3vJzxk0 People respond to a camera shoved in their face. It's not felt the…

See em dash in text Think text much more likely from robot than first thought Grug say this change too big from just one em dash

Just because you want that to be "the key" doesn't make it so. You make that your singular focus and you let antisocial behaviour off the hook. That is your prerogative. For me, th…

Yes, yes. And a person who's pick-pocketed may well do better to protect their pockets. This does not absolve the thief. Reasonable people can disagree about the degree to which ve…

Vendor lock-in is a thing. Switching costs are a thing. They know this. That's the whole business model. They're expecting that the cost of switching to outweigh the cost of the su…

Surgeons mark where on the body they're operating. This didn't used to be a standard practice. Asking "Did I mess up my left and right?" or "Is this the right patient?" feels like …

Stopped reading at the graphic. None of those descriptions for dishes sound anything like what a developer would write. Just pure obscurantist nonsense. "Cow secretions" to refer t…

It's a pretty good outcome, yeah. Kind of makes one wonder why copyright needs to be 70 years + life, when the overwhelming majority of sales are in the first year...

It's a signal whether you like it or not. Saying "well shucks anything could go out of business" is meaningless. What partners and customers want to know is the liklihood of that h…

You can short without tail risk, e.g. buying puts.

There are no programs that will fully transpile Perl to not-Perl, because that would require parsing Perl. A code converter that kindof-sortof-but-not-really transpiles (like Pytho…

ExifTool is merely a bunch of Perl code, which can't be parsed nor compiled to a program, i.e. computer instructions. There is nothing to port. The only other option is a rewrite. …

> if a summary could fully capture the report, the author wouldn't have written the report, they'd just have written the summary That is not my experience with corporate writing in…