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That claim is testable. The 2026 microstructure work on the Kalshi tape (72M trades, Becker) documented a systematic +1.12% excess return for liquidity providing makers and a symme…

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I ran this analysis using Convexly, a calibration-tracking tool I'm working on. The Brier scoring math in the post is the same math that runs in the product. Disclosure out of the …

Quick update: 1,934 quiz completions, 44.5% scored overconfident. Most interesting finding was that the quiz itself got more engagement than the product behind it. Added educationa…

Both really good points. The research does suggest that the core skill does transfer. The quiz can help with long horizon predictions. The mechanism itself seems to be the actual a…

Thank you! Happy to hear to how it compares!

That's all true. I'm a solo founder and have been using Claude heavily to build this. It definitely shows in many places, and I'll make sure to clean those up. I did not expect to …

The change to buttons was based on feedback I got today. The slider disappearing is a bug. Pushing a fix now!

Made a few changes based on feedback from this thread: full results now shown immediately with no email gate, changed the UX to include true/false/uncertain buttons + a confidence …

Can't fault that, actually a great workflow. Calibration helps you know which ones to research!

Update at 2 hours: 1350+ quiz takers! 50% overconfident, 40% well-calibrated, and 10% underconfident. The average score is around 0.228, with the best score still at 0.007 (nearly …

Great recommendation. That was one of the biggest influences for starting to write my decisions down and then building this.

That's fair, I'll flag those or maybe even add regional context. Nice score, well above average!

That's awesome, hadn't seen this one! I like the confidence interval approach.

That's honest feedback, I appreciate it. The post quiz shouldn't feel like a sales funnel. I'll clean that up. Working on it!

Your point on scoring is correct, if you're 100% confident and right on everything you would score a perfect 0. The calibration insight is in how you handle the questions where you…

Actually means you have really strong knowledge. That 17% gap though is what gets people in trouble in high-stakes settings!