Viewing profile — conscion

Sports betting is the one place that "prediction markets" make the most sense. Instead of there being a house to win against, the market just skims a fee. The line is set organical…

I think they gloss over a major factor also. They mention: > Distribution centres are built around motorway junctions (J24 of the M1, the Golden Triangle in the East Midlands) beca…

The political solution is 30 year term limits for Senate and House (5 terms and 15 terms respectively). The current system lack of term limits incentivizes inaction

My guess is that they are end-to-end encrypted. And because of Facebook's scale that they're able to probabilisticly guess at what's in the encrypted messages (e.g.a message with X…

> Actual effective managers do much more And how many managers are effective vs. only information funnels?

If you're OK with a ridiculously tall phone: https://www.clicks.tech/

These are all commodity use-cases though. Google, Meta, and Anthropic already all have competing products of equivalent quality and customer pricing is being driven down aggressive…

> This is the same as Searles Chinese room. The intelligence isn’t in the clerk but the book. However the thinking is in the paper. This feels like a misrepresentation of the "Chin…

> Most of my criticism of Ben’s perspective is against the idea that some kind of emergent morality that we would recognize I think Anthropic has already provided some evidence tha…

It's also the weakening of the dollar. If the dollar is 10% weaker, an international gold seller now needs 10% more dollars to be willing to give you their gold -- which means the …

> The problem wasn't sketchy mortgages, it was the borderline fraudulent financial shenanigans after that. What do you think was funding the sketchy mortgages? The fraudulent finan…

> And that's before any discussion about the actual de minimus changes. Changes which will effectively kill the ability for the average American citizen to custom order anything fr…

It think these "positive news" approaches are always falling prey to stated vs. revealed preference. People's revealed preference is that they want news about _actual_ events, whic…

> If the number is only 17%, I'm not sure we need to ban them. Job hunting is a market and the government should tryu to make every market as efficient as possible. Imagine if you …

The robotaxi evaluation only made sense when they claimed to be years ahead of competitors. A robotaxi service operating in a regular taxi market could have large margins. But Waym…

What does any of what you wrote have to do with not trusting this new technology?

I don't think they're confused, I think they're approaching it as general AI research due to the uncertainty of how the models might improve in the future. They even call this out …

I see this brought up as an issue every time distributing H1-Bs by salary is brought up. What is the issue with big tech "buying them all"?

That Amazon wasn't acquiring it for it's business acumen and was actually acquiring it for some secondary purpose (i.e. market consolidation, data extraction)

The US should really nationalize their rail infrastructure; only the rails themselves, not the railroad companies. The railroads should be treated as transportation infrastructure …

So hypocritical of him "Elon Musk didn't make a billion dollars, his employees did"

This is still possible. There's nothing stopping you from putting comments in the JSON in your file or a webpage. It's just not going to be accepted as valid by JSON parser, which …

> The 10th time, the 50th time, I still needed the GPS to guide me. If anyone else is frustrated by this experience, I've found that changing the setting in Google Maps to have the…

Hostilities from men towards women are much more dangerous and women have the correct response to be more vigilant about them.

Large corporations buy Windows _because_ they can have this level of control over their machines. The CTOs and auditors want to be able to say they've personally secured their syst…