Viewing profile — coffeemug

A government agency tests all medications, why not models?

Imagine a model that's 10000x more intelligent than any human. You integrate that model into a sensitive industry. You now effectively have an extremely powerful foreign agent runn…

I'm not advocating for the policy, I'm just saying that there is a legitimate argument that's not so easy to dismiss. > And you could still ban specific, known malicious models/lab…

Subsidizing a product to capture market share is very different from exploiting a national security attack vector.

I am not supposing a low-risk event. This is an obvious attack vector that an adversary would almost certainly exploit. I would exploit it if I were them.

Suppose a foreign actor deliberately builds an unaligned model, and dumps it at a very low cost through subsidies. Since the cost is lower, everyone integrates it into their busine…

I disagree with the first part (that this is merely a voice). There is a distinct difference between an author's unique voice and slop. It may be hard to tease out exactly what the…

Would you feel the same way if he attached good faith probability estimates to those claims?

As a language Lisp is great (though the ecosystem is limited). It has two flaws-- it's very open-ended so unless you're talented and disciplined you can fall into a rabbit hole of …

I don’t find Opus to be overly left-leaning. I think it’s generally pretty balanced with a slight lean left, but when pressed it will happily steelman rightwing arguments and opera…

Not anything. There are domains where precedents empirically don’t balloon and domains where they do. Federal government is nearly always the latter.

The issues with this are precedent/slippery slope. Today it's a small stake in a small number of companies, but empirically government initiatives almost always grow. Once entrench…

When I was lifting weights I went from 170lbs to 210, and back to 170. Doing that isn’t technically hard, and maintaining is even easier. But I had to think about it _all_ the time…

Regulatory agencies limit uses of other products without acts of congress-- cigarettes, vapes, drugs, pesticides, chemicals, explosives. Even firearms, despite a constitutional ame…

Another plausible future is AI reshuffling the economic hierarchy. In a technological civilization the pressure valve need not be political. As an aside, you made me curious if Tru…

It depends on whether you believe US action is overdetermined, but I think if Trump didn’t get elected we would have continued on the path of free trade. His election wasn’t predes…

That’s a very uncharitable way to interpret public opinion. A more charitable way is that people have different ethical intuitions. Some of us lean more utilitarian than others, an…

“Billionaires v. the underclass” is such an unsophisticated discussion. Markets have all kinds of externalities, equilibrium traps, information asymmetry flywheels, and hundreds of…

Giving normal people something that has only been available to rich people is a staple of technological innovation. The problem in this case with Siri isn’t that people don’t want …

Microsoft is no longer rest and vest and hasn’t been for a long time. The expectations and pressure are very high (at least the corner I’m in)

The balance of power between capital and labor fluctuates; qualitatively it definitely felt different ten years ago. For whatever reason labor seems to have much less power today. …

Both arguments can be (and are) right at once. What OP said is definitely true on the micro level-- not "even/might/some aspects", but the whole thing. It's true that in any given …

I think your first equilibrium would be hard, for two reasons. First, empirically insurgencies are extremely difficult to exterminate; over the long run they tend to win. Second, i…