Viewing profile — c1ccccc1

I mean, I guess the answer there would be to build the usual kind of Haber-Brosch process plants that run continuously, and feed them with hydrogen derived from natural gas. But ju…

> they things they believe in are unlikely to happen. Sorry, but most times I've talked to someone who says this (about AI completely replacing humanity), they don't have anything …

Just a terminology note: Alignment does not mean the AI will help its owner kill people. (Indeed, an AI aligned to value human life would generally try to prevent murders.) The wor…

Or the AI companies could filter it from their training data. That would be another, probably easier, option.

Yes. I was not re-doing the original post, just describing an interesting consequence of the kinetic energy formula.

A stationary but hot object has kinetic energy due the the motion of the individual atoms that make it up, even though its overall momentum is 0. I.e. ∑ⱼ mⱼ v⃗ⱼ = 0⃗ where the mⱼ a…

If you use the right formula for calculating it (which approximates p=mv at low speeds), momentum is actually conserved in special relativity, and so is energy. However: Energy and…

Energy is conserved in Galilean relativity. The thing you're trying to say is that it's not invariant across reference frames. The answer linked above actually takes advantage of t…

This looks like good work. Unfortunately, this kind of thing always seems to attract midwits on social media who then exclaim "oh, the people worried about AI alignment have caused…

If you have a limited budget of tokens as a defender, maybe the best thing to spend them on is not red teaming, but formalizing proofs of your code's security. Then the number of t…

Kudos for giving a concrete example, but the square-cube law means that scaling area A results in A^(3/2) scaling for the mass of material used and also launch costs. If you make t…

Radiators can shadow each other, so that puts some kind of limit on the size of the individual satellite (which limits the size of training run it can be used for, but I guess the …

You're right, thanks!

̶I̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶a̶c̶t̶u̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶t̶i̶c̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶e̶n̶g̶i̶n̶e̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶g̶u̶t̶ ̶b̶a̶c̶t̶e̶r̶i̶a̶ ̶r̶a̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶n̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶c̶e̶l…

Name some of the contradictory possibilities you have in mind? Also, do you actually think the core idea is wrong, or is this more of a complaint about how it was presented? Say we…

Oh, so just a probability density thing where we sample q and check if it's p^n (retrying if not) rather than sampling p and n separately and computing q=p^n? I guess that's probab…

Why is that? My guess would be that you could adjoin an i all the time to the p^n field and get the p^2n field, as long as you had p = 4k + 3. But that's admittedly based on approx…

Yes, there is: https://manifold.markets/ People's bets are publicly viewable. The website is very popular with these "rationality-ists" you refer to. I wasn't in fact arguing that …

I mean, sure people can use this to fool themselves. I think usually the cause of someone fooling themselves is "the will to be fooled" , and not so much that fact that they used p…

I meant in a general sense that it's better when reporting measurements/estimates of real numbers to report the uncertainty of the estimate alongside the estimate, instead of using…

You should basically assume they are pulled from thin air. (Or more precisely, from the brain and world model of the people making the prediction.) The point of giving such estimat…

Would you also get triggered if you saw people make a bet at, say, $24 : $87 odds? Would you shout: "No! That's too precise, you should bet $20 : $90!"? For that matter, should all…