Viewing profile — bubblelicious

I think you’re welcome to that opinion and are far from alone but (1) I am very happy to pay for Claude, even $200/mo is worth it and (2) idk if people just sort of lose track or w…

I disagree, you have to take yourself back to when electricity was not widely available. How much labor did electricity eliminate? A LOT I imagine. AI will make a lot of things obs…

Epoch has a pretty good analysis of bottlenecks here: https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030 There is plenty of data left, we don’t just train with crawled text…

Show me a paper, this makes no sense of course scaling laws are scaling

Sounds like someone has no knowledge of the literature, synthetic data isn’t like asking ChatGPT to give you a bunch of fake internet data.

Right let’s not have done the Industrial Revolution or the Internet or electricity

This based on any non anecdotal evidence by chance?

And you don’t think that’s already happening? Also where is your evidence for this?

Why do people think this is any different than other major economic revolutions like electricity or the Industrial Revolution? Society is not going to collapse, things will just ge…

Where does this view come from? I’m not aware of any real evidence for this. Also consider our data center buildouts in 26 and 27 will be absolutely extraordinary, and scaling is o…

Are you talking about just preferences or A/B tests on like retention and engagement? The latter I think is pretty reliable and powerful though I have never personally done them. P…

I work on LLM benchmarks and human evals for a living in a research lab (as opposed to product). I can say: it’s pretty much the Wild West and a total disaster. No one really has a…

I’m not really sure how you envision AI use at your job but AI can be the extremely imperfect tool it is now and also be extremely useful. What part of AI use to you feels like a s…

It just totally is different from my own personal experience which leads me to believe people just are lamenting poor usage of AI tools which is very understandable. But nuanced an…

I think that’s perfectly fair. However, if you were leadership in this scenario, and you see people using various AI tools are systematically more productive then the people that a…

What do you mean?

Can you be more specific? What are the trivial cases you’re talking about? AI just doesn’t work? Coding agents are not saving anyone any time?

What’s the controversy, unless people are straw manning or pulling from some bad personal experience? If you are not leveraging the best existing tools for your job (and understand…

Great take! Certainly resonates with me a lot - this is war path funding - this is geopolitics; and it’s arguably a rational and responsible play - we should expect to see more nat…

It’s more like people pretend it’s “obvious” that the market is going to do something or that AI developments are not going to support the spend, it’s just not obvious to me. I thi…

> asking where today’s AI bubble – because that’s what it clearly is – fits in a 1990s timeline Yet evidence is: - CAPE is high - NVIDIA has a very large market cap - enormous capi…

I agree — probably my own selective memory and straw-manning. It just feels in my mind like the “vibe” on HN (in terms of articles that reach the front page and top rated comments)…

Yea a lot of this I understand and appreciate! - offline and even online benchmarks are terrible unless actually a standard product experiment (a/b test etc). Evaluation science is…