Viewing profile — bturtel

Hey HN, I fine-tuned a small open-source model on golf forecasting and it beats GPT-5 at predicting golf outcomes. The same approach can be used to build a specialized model in any…

Great question! It's probabilistic so not really "right vs wrong" on any single question, but who better estimated the likelihood. One big difference shows up when there's no usefu…

Hey HN! I RL-tuned an open-source LLM (gpt-oss-120b — 120B MoE, but only 5.1B active params) to predict "What will Trump do?" in any situation, trained on nothing but public news c…

Great question! The key advantage of self-play is that we don't actually have labels for the "right" probability to assign any given question, only binary outcomes - each event eit…

We're working on a follow up paper now to show similar results with larger models!

Great read! Thanks for sharing.

I built Sculptor after repeatedly seeing founders try to hire data scientists for a task that ultimately boiled down to extracting structured data from unstructured text (customer …

This could be huge. IIUC this is basically an AI-enabled version of MyFitnessPal, which has like 200M+ users, but with a massively streamlined user experience. Great idea.

This looks really cool - the UI in particular feels really approachable and polished. I like how you detect and call out "What you're doing wrong" to help build awareness of unhelp…

This is really cool - I think its really helpful in difficult conversations when you can encourage people to choose a single branch / claim of the argument and stick to resolving t…

Yea, I think so - I could imagine this being really streamlined by just dropped me immediately into a conversation, with maybe the goal just written on a screen somewhere - no setu…