Viewing profile — avionical

Annual $10k prediction contest on a variety of topics. $3k prize pool for the best question submissions.

$15,000 for accurate forecasts about the Trump admin.

There's calibration, but you can also just see contests where you pit the community aggregate against individual forecasters and see who wins. The Metaculus aggregate is really dom…

Open to all in the US, but $12.5k is earmarked for undergrad forecasters

Specifically, what autonomous replication and adaptation (ARA) abilities will they possess and how will they fare against industry benchmarks.

He's never lost a bet (with academics, researchers, pundits, etc.) for 17 years of public betting. You can see his current open bets here and predict whether he'll win.

Unclear, but the predictions appear to be better on things like US elections than prediction markets or 538: https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast...

No, it's also 'AI and Machine Learning,' 'Artificial Intelligence, and 'Forecasting AI Progress.' The list of resolved questions is roughly this: https://www.metaculus.com/question…

And you may want to check the weighted Metaculus Prediction if you haven't already.

I find it useful for a few different non-coding work tasks, and I don't think I'm unusual there.

I wouldn't say AGI in 10 years is predicting an obvious outcome. And the same goes for many other questions on the site.