Viewing profile — aubreyclayton

So, if I knew ahead of time what your price was going to be tomorrow, I would have a clear arbitrage strategy. But that's not a fair example. The question is: what do I know at t=0…

Sure. If you've studied stochastic processes like Brownian motion, check out the derivation starting with the last paragraph on p.4 of this note: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t…

Yep! Thanks!

He is wrong in that the sentence of his that I quoted contained two statements: "when the volatility of the underlying security increases, [1] arbitrage pressures push the correspo…

So... I wrote this. Maybe I can clarify a little what I meant by the statement "Since Silver’s forecasts begin with probability models, it’s safe to assume they obey all the rules,…