Viewing profile — arctic-true

Difference there is you need a physical body firing the ghost gun. There can be witnesses who saw a shooter, you can look at cameras to track their physical location, and if they d…

How are you going to figure that out? You can’t capture an agent in a jar and convince it to confess. As we saw with the HF incident, even highly sophisticated actors need a good c…

I think the “in their neighborhoods” thing is really the key. These things have got to be poison for property values. Younger, less wealthy people have economic anxiety about AI fo…

Unfortunately I agree and I think we are going to be trapped in a double whammy scenario: genAI is good enough to justify significant layoffs without being profitable enough to jus…

The failures of past doomsayers are important to keep in mind. It’s hard to say “well, but we know things they didn’t know at the time, but this time that won’t happen.” I will obs…

Here again you have network effects, though. I personally have an iPhone because it’s what all my friends and family use and there are communication functions that are much easier …

The cash burn is not the problem. You can’t build a big business without it. The difference is network effects. With ride sharing apps, you need a lot of drivers and riders collect…

Several top level comments are attacks on the author’s credibility that do not engage the substance of the piece at all. I think the fundamental problem for people on all sides of …

This is an underappreciated point. The economy would likely be in freefall without AI. Yes, things look bleak for current college grads. The bitter pill to swallow is that they beg…

China probably doesn’t accept Dominican pesos, either, and yet you’d be hard pressed to say that somebody with 100 billion Dominican pesos just has some random numbers. If you can …

I tend to agree, but for the sake of argument: it’s possible that he’s such a true believer that he’d see cashing out as a betrayal. Alternatively, he might understand that cashing…

This is a limitation of the training data. If you were uncertain about something, you wouldn’t write a book about it. The kinds of people you’re talking about tend to generate far …

Do you have any recommendations for colorization tools? I agree that all of the popular image models subtly tweak faces, it is very uncanny when working with pictures of people I k…

Until the humanoid robots gain the ability to process caffeine, then we’re all hosed.

The demand is real. The tech is real. The economics are completely unsustainable. Switching costs and barriers to entry are too low, operating costs are too high. And if the tech i…

I’m not talking about training costs. I’m talking about startup costs. You have to pay for GPUs (or to rent data centers). You have to pay for the electricity that runs those data …

Profitable on what basis? They generate more revenue than the cost of electricity? Does that factor in the cost to service the massive, multi-layer cake of debt that was necessary …

The difference is switching costs and the viability of alternatives. Even open source models are only a few months behind the frontier labs, which is a long time in tech but practi…

But this is exactly the problem - we have to take it on faith that inference is profitable because nobody actually knows. It’s hard to even define what that would mean, and while I…

The winner will be the last man standing. The company which is able to continue subsidizing tokens after all others have been forced to throttle and raise prices. Soak up the marke…

Not sure it qualifies as an “LLM prediction,” but he was adamant that Nvidia would not come through with the $100 billion funding round, and sure enough they did not.

I found Gemini to keep asking the same follow-up questions regardless of my responses. In discussing a health topic, it repeatedly offered recipes for healthy snacks - 4 times, bef…

I had this experience when I was trying to find an apartment - multiple different buildings very clearly had AI-generated responses. (To all you builders out there: quick replies a…

I see this as well. Part of the appeal of any crafting hobby is that it doesn’t matter and you can just mess around, but the flip side is that nobody is breathing down your neck to…

What is it that makes all these vibe coded websites use the same font? Is there no way to change it?