Viewing profile — Zigurd

Have I fallen into a time warp? Didn't Meta have a head of AI who thought open models were the way to go?

Bluesky client with on device AI.

> It wouldn't have worked, period. That's the point. As yet uninvented tests and reagents are the same kind of line of BS as "let's make the rocket bigger." While I have the advant…

Aptera is one of those things where the idea is so attractive one is far too tempted to ignore poor execution. And the current set of people there might actually be competent. But …

Are you a biochemist? Would the Theranos machine have worked with new tests using new reagents? Is the needed blood volume not similar to, for example, payload capacity? Are we dis…

In the current environment I doubt Elizabeth Holmes would go to prison. She would be saying the machine would work by early next year. After all a drop of blood is just a smaller q…

They're not libertarians. They are at least authoritarian. They've lined up behind genuinely fascist politicians and donated money to those politicians. You're trying to protect th…

That still doesn't resolve who is more likely to blackmail or otherwise misuse data. I think it's a Chinese saying: the mountains are high and the emperor is far away.

Sure but the cops aren't going to pull you over based on what you think about Chinese policy. Government do mess with people across international borders, but the capacity to do th…

I hate the mind-bogglingly incompetent approach to project management Elon takes. It's like a chess player who can't see even two moves ahead. TBF a starship will orbit the planet …

No point in carrying humans until you can launch the 15 refueling missions to get it out of low Earth orbit. Elon hasn't got a single clue what a critical path is in a project plan…

For example, Google ridiculously overpaid for SpaceX AI data center capacity, by something like more than an order of magnitude, both directly and via Anthropic. An inquisitively s…

Take comfort in the fact that compared to the size of the universe, the speed of light is like molasses in January. Cosmological eschatology is a very slow game, and the odds of yo…

I believe in AGI to the extent that if what's going on between your ears isn't happening on a network of neurons, it's magic. And I also believe the idea that AGI is near is based …

A few months ago I heard Demis Hassabis say something, albeit vague, I doubt he truly believed regarding AGI. That AGI is relatively near is the party line everywhere. That may con…

Using capillary blood that's been sitting on your fingertip, that has some amount of interstitial fluid in it will make your blood tests fail, even if you collect enough blood that…

The Theranos machine actually did run blood tests. But only a very limited number of blood tests can be run on a finger prick sample due to limitations on the volume collected, con…

Starship has as much chance of working to spec as the Theranos machine. Except the scam is three orders of magnitude or more larger. But if you take a step back and ignore the hype…

There are a couple of other important factors: one is safety. Waymos observe traffic laws and safety rules. With enough Waymo on the road, everyone else will be forced to obey spee…

Skepticism of AI is the healthiest attitude you can have these days. I use coding agents every day, but that just makes me acutely aware that coding, even compared to supposedly st…

You mean Theranos, right?

Having just one reason or one influence for massive strategic errors seems unlikely. And in this case that certainly doesn't make it better.

If you tried, could you make a more vague and abstract example of the sunk cost fallacy? Iran would do what with what to whom? There is literally no better example of a case where …

You summed up the naïve approach to the cost and reusability issue: > To actually reach the next level of profit opportunity you need to achieve full re-usability. Upper stage reus…

One of these things is not like the other. Russia is a threat to Europe, and is in the midst of invading a country with a lot of agricultural, industrial, and cultural upside that …