Viewing profile — TheCowboy

How were you able to use a credit card when it's not a payment they accept?

It's an empirical fact that smart people can predict things by doing research. See Tetlock's book Superforecasting. I've been doing it profitably myself for almost 10 years now. I …

Some of that, sure. But realistically, a lot people are just don't want to pay for every frontier model provider out there as they're released. Not just money, but also time trying…

It's also a bit overblown. If you could rig a war, you would stand to make a lot more money playing the stock market than small potatoes prediction markets. A lot of money has been…

I've been active and profitably trading in prediction markets for a long time now, but I think this perspective is also not helpful. Prediction markets exist within the laws and in…

A lot of people assume insider trading in weather markets on data that's publicly available but they're unaware of. It's also a massive whoosh that you only consider the insider tr…

PredictIt operated with $850 limits for years, and overall this seemed fine. Limits of various sizes might make sense depending on the subject, where the risk of penalty greater ou…

How would you describe that and have you been applying it?

I'm honestly not a big fan of when people throw out numbers implying a high degree of rigor without actually showing me evidence so I can judge for myself. If you're this much more…

> If it's so much more productive, where is all the great software that's being built with it? This is such a new and emerging area that I don't understand how this is a constructi…

In theory, there exist people who are exceptional at solving unique problems/challenges or managing things related to such endeavors. Some might specialize in certain classes of pr…

Maybe we shouldn't wish widespread harm on society to force them to "reassess their priorities" and engage in civilized dialogue instead.

> No-one really likes engineering war stories Is that really true? I did keep reading the entire piece. I think they're often interesting and can contain nuggets of wisdom or insig…

Right, we're now in reality where the Senate is passing rescissions with a simple majority in addition to the President now doing "pocket rescissions". How do you negotiate in good…

Why isn't simply getting another Claude account an option that you've tried before damaging your brain with low quality sleep? Or writing prompts that get fired off by a script onc…

One problem with this is crypto AMM (automated market making) works best with stability and low volatility. For example, it's terrible in the context of prediction markets. Market …

I don't think it necessarily leads to a of mastery of data structures and algorithms in the context of leetcode/modern coding interviews. One can do a lot of coding, and even be pa…

Not primarily the fault of the IRS, as they were just following the law passed in 2017 that didn't go into effect until years later. But there's a chance it gets changed back to th…

This wasn't really on anyone's radar until more recently. I don't think even a simple majority of tech workers even realized this had happened until after the job market had tighte…

It's at least useful for seeing how other people are being productive with these tools. I also sometimes find a clever idea that improves that I'm already doing. And documenting th…

I think part of the skill in using LLMs is getting a sense for how to effectively break problems down, and also getting a sense of when and when not to do it. The article also ment…

> (and hopefully referenced) If it's cited, it's usually by definition not plagiarism. Omitting the reference is passing the work off as your own, but providing that information is…

I didn't say "decline in support for RSS" but there are many examples of them being removed. Twitter dropped RSS completely. Facebook dropped them for pages. And then other large s…

It's complicated, and I think it's less malicious in a way that "kneecapped" implies. Sure, RSS still exists in some form, but I think the utility of it has been in decline, and a …

> are you a Democrat shill? Surely we can be adults enough to discuss this without the partisan edge.