Viewing profile — TaylorPhebillo

This is a reference to one the Recurse Center's social rules: https://www.recurse.com/social-rules I was really impressed with how successful RC is at maintaining an environment wh…

How do prediction markets account for interest rates? I feel like I should be willing to pay no more than ~96 cents for a contract that will definitely resolve to a dollar in a yea…

I'm sincerely unclear- is the analysis here that smaller samples (fewer ballots processed by a tabulator) have a higher relative standard deviation than larger samples?

Occasionally but pretty rarely. By the time a trade has become actually risk free, as in "I can instantly buy X here and sell X there and make a profit", someone will have realized…

Almost always outside of crypto, the market makers and exchanges are different entities. Exchanges maintain order books- who is willing to buy or sell what, at what prices, plus a …

These are still fairly canonical, and what I got recommended when I started recently. Trading at the Speed of Light by MacKenzie is very good too- a lighter read, but more recent.

I see [1] speculate that Coinbase users could be considered unsecured general creditors, and therefore lower priority to repay than secured creditors. That does seem bad on it's ow…

Was this Amazon? Generally equity would replace the cash bonus in subsequent years. Compensation then becomes somewhat uncertain, but if it became a huge pay cut at that company an…

[Deleted a previous reply out of an abundance of caution about proprietary strategies] That matches my first order academic understanding of market makers, but not the more detaile…

That seems true, but in practice it seems like a market maker can't offer competitive spreads without having a decent sense of market direction, and they will have to take a positi…

I'm not familiar with this, does this method require that each value is measured independently of the others? Because in that case, you'd want to use monthly inflation rates, rathe…

I've played with it a little bit: Copilot did pretty poorly when I tried using it with Julia- it kept suggesting Python code. I suspect it would do something similar in Elixir. I'm…

My hunch is that they aren't tailored toward ridiculous images exactly, but if they demonstrated "a woman sitting in a chair reading", it would be really hard to tell if the result…

ARM big little uses the same instruction set on each core, right? You wouldn't have one 8.2 core and one 8.4 core?

I hope so? But that's hard to study, and Givewell (in contrast to other effective altruism organizations) is fairly conservative about making claims and recommendations.

The enormous risk factor from the article is malnutrition. Givewell, an organization which specializes in estimating the cost-effectiveness of forms of charitable giving, suggests …

I'm not totally sure, but I suspect quantitate finance/market makers, of which tech is a big part, would do well during recessions- profits there seem correlated to volatility and …

That makes some sense. So buy-borrow-die with all the shares used as collateral generates no taxes, if you can find someone to lend for the full value of the shares. I wonder how h…

I'm going through Understanding Software Dynamics by Richard Sites now, and it's the first book I've read that covers the practical performance implications of some of these new fe…

I'm still learning about buy-borrow-die, but US estate taxes are higher than income taxes above ~$12 million, right? Much less capital gains. So buy-borrow-die would generate more …

I honestly can't tell how the Softbank vision fund is doing. News articles on it report record breaking profits and losses. The two vision funds were recently-ish reported as being…

Is there meaningful, comprehensive data on anything like "What cities are focal points for technology work"? For example, number of software engineers, total software workforce com…

1/20 the cost sounds good, but can you post your math there, or why you think they can be beat by that margin? It sounds like a fun project to work on, but I worry that the price i…

Agreed- I was really interested in the facts cited at the start, less so in the citation-less analysis later. So I looked into the report cited many, many times- it's from the Cent…