Viewing profile — RA_Fisher

AI be used to make reviewing it easy, eh?

Exactly, it’s unrepresentative of AI. It’s damaged AI.

We need a new Pelican, bc earlier models were disadvantaged relative to later models. It's not a very useful comparison anymore.

I agree. I don't think there's much public information out there about the due diligence involved in his hiring.

Fair. An interesting question: how quickly can we detect something without being thwarted by anisotropy / the multiplicity of backward paths? ie- retrodiction Let’s organize the te…

It’s well-known Brockman and his wife donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., the main super PAC supporting Donald Trump. The main higher-level factor is our patriarchal culture (and mor…

This is super, but students will have access to AI during the test in real life, so it's ironically less realistic to remove it (thinking of the "... GPT-4 actually harmed subseque…

So Opus might be correct?

An LLM disproved a famous 80-year-old conjecture.

True, during Covid when blue collar in-person maga unemployment skyrocketed, the Fed could have avoided increasing the money supply. I wish they had, bc we all had to pay the resul…

There’ll always be boundary tending, true. Only a portion of CS deals with stochastic functions though, whereas all of statistics is stochastic. That makes a big difference, bc the…

Programming is a lot easier than statistics bc it’s deterministic, whereas statistics is stochastic (that extends and encompasses deterministic functions). AI speeds up learning, s…

Companies should encourage AI use in interviews to avoid this issue.

The gold standard and metalism generally, leads to all kinds of unproductive panics bc the quantity of money can’t wisely be adjusted to the situation. It’s a bad trade off, bc it’…

I used AI to unpack it a bit here: https://statwonk.com/econometricians-can-build-decision-engi... I'd generally point to econometrics and statistics applied to business. The key a…

Econometricians can solve it, bc we can create rigorous models that map causal inputs to output. It’s extremely advanced technology, though, and most CEOs would rather rent seek / …

It may be that they’re protecting their time.

True, but high-quality education, whether personal or formally, tends to produce high-quality knowledge. Yes, companies pay for what’s perceived to create revenue and profit (and y…

I’d certainly not say it’s everything, look at all the highly-paid mediocre CEOs. Education has rigorously been shown to lead to higher incomes and wealth on average.

Yup! I was a part of the learn to code industry. I am proud of that, bc I know my worker helped a lot of marginalized people gain wealth and power (woo!). My own occupation, stats …

Agree, AIs are better decision-makers on average than people (just look at the grifters we've given power to). These are machines that can perform more advanced mathematics than ev…

Sadly I think this post will mislead people, bc the difficult truth (for many) is that software engineering isn't that hard and that's why AI can easily substitute that layer (lowe…

I don’t think there are other models near Fable’s capabilities.

Ah thank you for updating me there.

In what ways? LM Arena has Opus 4.7 w/ 1567 -/+ 7 vs. 1505 -/+ 10 from GPT-5.5 Codex in code. I'm currently using both. Admittedly my recent experience tilts Opus now 4.8, but you …