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This is extremely important. Scott Alexander's earlier predictions are holding up extremely well, at least on image progress.

"Guns, Germs, and Steel", by Jared Diamond, is basically a book-length answer to this question that I would highly recommend.

First HN post in a hot minute. If you guys have any questions, happy to clarify! :)

I'm making a 2024 Bingo card for my friend group. What are some plausible events that could make for an interesting set of bingo cards? Each one should be a prediction for 2024. An…